The last few years have raised valid questions of whether the Dallas Cowboys are still America’s Team. It’s been three decades since they last appeared in an NFC Championship Game, and while they’ve been to the playoffs plenty, it feels as though a collapse is typically imminent.
However, it does feel like the vibes around this team are shifting. Heading into the new season, head coach Brian Schottenheimer seems to be changing the culture – with an all-world offense and a defense that should show significant signs of improvement, could this finally be their year?
Here’s a look at the Cowboys’ win total over/under for the 2026-27 NFL season with a top betting pick.
Dallas Cowboys 2026 win total, best bet
When the Mike McCarthy era came to an end two offseasons ago, there was plenty of pushback to how the Cowboys handled their coaching search. At the time they made a decision and began exploring other options, the candidate pool was limited. They settled on an internal hire in former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer – a decision which was blasted by many fans and media members alike. In the same offseason, superstar EDGE Micah Parsons was traded away amidst a contract dispute, creating even more cloudiness around the franchise’s direction.
Schottenheimer’s first season at the helm was underwhelming to say the least, finishing 7-9-1. However, there’s plenty of reason to believe that year two under his direction will go much more smoothly.
The Cowboys’ offense hasn’t been the problem – in fact, quite the opposite. They ranked second in total yards per game (391.9), second in passing yards per game (266.3) and ninth in rushing yards per game (125.6). Their scoring average of 27.7 points per contest fell seventh among all NFL clubs, too. Dak Prescott reprises his role under center with a litany of weapons, including a healthy CeeDee Lamb who has recovered from last year’s ankle sprain, a franchise-tagged George Pickens in a contract year, Jake Ferguson at tight end, and Javonte Williams in the backfield. The offensive core is virtually unchanged, and they maintain one of the stronger offensive lines across the league. Projecting another high-achieving season on this side of the ball is more than reasonable.
Dallas’ defense, however, was the issue that held the team back last year. A variety of adjectives could describe that unit, but “historically bad” is probably one of the best turns of phrase you could use. The Cowboys were frequently gashed on the ground and through the air in turn, but did show some modest improvement after trading for All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.
Now, the front seven also includes Rashan Gary and Von Miller, plus first-round selection Malachi Lawrence. Better health from cornerback Daron Bland will be a big boon, and plenty of fresh faces have arrived to offer reinforcements in the secondary – No. 11 pick and collegiate star safety Caleb Downs should provide a huge boost, as will defensive backs Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant and Jalen Thompson. Talent is no longer the issue, and given the hiring of defensive coordinator Christian Parker from the Philadelphia Eagles, there’s hope for a turnaround here.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cowboys’ win total at 9.5, with the under favored at -120 odds and the over set at +100.
There’s no question that the over makes for a far better bet here. Dallas hung around in games thanks to a stellar offense last season, and given the continuity of returning talent and the coaching staff, the team should post another top-10 campaign on that side of the ball at absolute worst. If Prescott stays healthy, the Cowboys can hit their ceiling and post top-five numbers on offense once again. Reliable play on that side of the ball is something many teams can only ask for. Last year shows where the floor is, even if the defense doesn’t improve.
With some progression on the other side of the ball, this team will assuredly find itself competing for the NFC East title with hope for a deep postseason run. The Cowboys don’t have to be elite on that end, but even slightly below-average play on defense would present a massive step from what they put on the field last year. Parker is spoken of rather glowingly by many sources and will have plenty of playmakers to work with, even if there isn’t a superstar pass rusher. It’s a unit that can be greater than the sum of its parts – if they perform at even a league-average level while the offense is clicking, this team can be scary.
Over 9.5 wins feels very reasonable given the growth Dallas should show given the influx of talent and defensive shakeups for year two under Schottenheimer. Based on opponents’ winning percentage from last season, the Cowboys also rank 13th in strength of schedule (0.493). With that note, over 10.5 wins also earns a nod as a top pick here for better value at +200 odds.
NFL Pick: Cowboys over 10.5 wins (+200)
