The Mercury are hosting the Mystics on Thursday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Washington is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 166.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction, Preview
These clubs just went head-to-head Tuesday in Phoenix, and the Mystics prevailed, 94-84, which comes after the Mystics also beat the Mercury in Washington a few weeks ago on August 9.
Monday’s matchup was a typical win for the Mystics. Their No. 3 rated defense held the Mercury to just 84 points, and on offense, five players reached double-figures for Washington, with Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen leading the way, per usual.
The Mystics rank eighth in net rating and are the No. 7 seed at 23-15, which is just a half game ahead of the eighth-seeded Wings. Washington is also tied with the Liberty, but sits behind them with New York owning the tiebreaker. The Mystics are only 1.5 games back of the Fever for the No. 6 seed with just six games remaining in the regular season. Washington has a real chance to move up before the postseason if the club keeps winning. As such, completing the 3-0 season sweep over the Mercury tonight is important.
The Mystics are 11-3 in their last 14, and those three defeats were excusable, losing to the defending champion Aces twice and the top-seeded Lynx once. Washington has gotten better as the year has progressed, while the Mercury have continued to struggle.
Phoenix is the No. 12 seed at 13-25 and the club was eliminated from the playoffs last week, which is a massive disappointment after this team made it to the WNBA Finals a year ago. The Mercury rank 12th in net rating, and since the All-Star break, they are just 3-7.
Things aren’t looking up, either, as DeWanna Bonner just left on a buyout to join the Dream and Kelsey Plum continues to deal with a nagging leg injury. The star is questionable tonight, but feels likely to play after suiting up for Tuesday’s loss to the Mystics. Plum wasn’t herself, though, scoring just 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting in 17 minutes off the bench.
Phoenix is just 1-4 with Plum active, and with the team eliminated, it’s hard to imagine she plays big minutes tonight. Plum is on an expiring deal and the Mercury want to sell themselves to her, so she re-signs with the team this offseason after they took a big risk and traded for her at the deadline. At the same time, Phoenix doesn’t have any incentive to win at this point of the season.
Plum building chemistry with Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper would be beneficial and could help the Mercury’s chances of retaining Plum, but all in all, this is a pretty bad situation for Phoenix, and it’s hard to have any confidence in this group right now.
Mercury vs. Mystics Pick, Best Bet
The Mystics are an up-and-coming team that is going to be a hard out in the playoffs, while the Mercury are the biggest disappoint in the league. Sure, Phoenix is at home again tonight, but the club is a league-worst 5-13 SU at home this season. Being on their home floor didn’t mean much for the Mercury on Tuesday, when the Mystics beat them by 10 points.
Washington has defeated Phoenix by 20 points and 10 points, respectively, and the Mystics should get another easy win tonight. Washington being only favorited by 4.5 points is puzzling and the team is a great bet to cover. The Mystics are 23-15 ATS and 13-9 ATS after a win, both of which are league-best records. Meanwhile, the Mercury are a league-worst 8-16 ATS after a loss.
