The Liberty are hosting the Valkyries on Thursday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 2.5 points and this game carries a total of 161.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Liberty vs. Valkyries Preview
This is the third and final matchup of the season between the Liberty and the Valkyries, and Golden State took the first two meetings, once at home and once on the road. The Valkyries are having an awesome second season in the WNBA. The team is the No.2 seed at 27-11 and ranks second in net rating, trailing only the No.1-seeded Lynx.
Golden State holds a 1.5-game lead over the defending champion Aces for the No.2 seed with only six games remaining, so every contest is crucial for the Valkyries right now. They have won eight of their last 10, including an impressive 80-66 road win over the Lynx on Monday. Golden State then followed this up with a 89-64 rout over the Sun last night.
The Valkyries are 0-1 when playing their second game in two nights this season, but tonight doesn’t feel like your typical back-to-back. Most of Golden State’s starters sat out the fourth quarter last night due to the easy win and the team only had to travel a few hours for tonight’s matchup, going from Connecticut to New York.
Veronica Burton, Gabby Williams and Janelle Saluan all have been solid recently, but per usual, the Valkyries have been winning games on defense. Golden State is the WNBA’s top rated defense and this unit been tremendous, holding eight straight opponents to less than 80 points. The Valkyries’ defense has been especially strong vs. the Liberty this season, limiting the club to just 70 and 67 points in it’s two meetings with Golden State.
That being said, while this isn’t your usual back-to-back situation for the Valkyries, New York holds the clear edge in rest, as the Liberty haven’t played since Saturday when they defeated the Liberty, 109-102. New York also has plenty to play for tonight, so it will be interesting to see if the Liberty can finally do some damage vs. Golden State.
New York is playoff bound, but this experienced group is just the No.6 seed at 23-15 and ranks sixth in net rating with only six games remaining in the regular season. The Liberty are tied with No.7-seeded Mystics, but hold the tiebreaker between the clubs and New York is only a half game ahead of the No.8-seeded Wings.
The Liberty absolutely don’t want to finish as the No.8 seed and the team has been much better recently after an up-and-down first half of the season. Saturday’s win over the Fever was impressive and it marked New York’s 10th victory in it’s last 13 games. The Liberty got Leonie Fiebich back after she missed 16 in a row with a foot injury and the German professional looked excellent in her return, exposing Indiana for 20 points.
Fiebich ranks second for the team in plus/minus and New York is 11-4 with her lineup, so Fiebich being back is a huge boost. Sabrina Ionescu has struggled by her standards this season, averaging 15.9 PPG – which is her worst mark since 2021 – but having Fiebich back takes some of the scoring load off Ionsecu’s and Breanna Stewart’s plate.
Fiebich returning also helps the Liberty significantly on defense. With her on the floor this season, New York owns a 105.3 defensive rating, compared to a 111.2 rating with her off. The Valkyries did beat the Liberty with Fiebich active on June 28th, 76-67, but this came in Golden State while tonight’s matchup will be in New York. The Liberty are 13-5 at home compared to 10-10 on road, but the Valkyries are no slouch when away from Golden State with a 12-6 record, so this matchup should be a competitive affair that really could go either way.
Liberty vs. Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
The Valkyries are the better team, but the Liberty are more rested, at home and just got a big piece back in Fiebich. While Golden State playing last night isn’t much a concern given the short trip and blowout last night, New York not playing since Saturday is difficult to overlook. This game should be a nail biter, but the Liberty should prevail in the end and finally get a win over the Valkyries.
New York is a league-worst 13-25 ATS, so backing the Liberty -2.5 does feel shaky and instead, I prefer the safer route of taking them on the moneyline at -142 odds.
