It’s been an interesting few years for the Las Vegas Raiders. The Josh McDaniels era feels like a lifetime ago, while Antonio Pierce saw two seasons at the helm before a maiden campaign with Pete Carroll at the helm last year. Now, a new era has begun.
This is one the fanbase is surely much more excited about, too. A new head coach with a Super Bowl ring and a No. 1 pick at quarterback with a Heisman Trophy and a national title to his name are enough to make anyone blush – but can they turn things around in Sin City heading into 2026?
Here’s a look at the Raiders’ win total over/under for the 2026-27 NFL season with a top betting pick.
Las Vegas Raiders 2026 win total, best bet
There’s plenty of new blood in town who’ll be working at Allegiant Stadium this year – and for the foreseeable future. It starts with Klint Kubiak, the new head coach who was one of the prizes of this offseason’s hiring cycle. The 39-year-old just coached the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl victory as the club’s offensive coordinator, and now, he takes over as a first-year head coach for the Raiders. He’s sounded intent on resetting the culture of this franchise when speaking to the media, and based on the reactions from many of the players, it seems like that change is beginning to take effect.
Kubiak relied on run-heavy football last year with the Seahawks, and it won’t be shocking to see the same with the Raiders. Last year’s first-round pick, halfback Ashton Jeanty, ran for 975 yards and five touchdowns behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL for an offense that saw little in the way of consistency. Now, he’s positioned for a major role in the backfield with the addition of offensive lineman Tyler Linderbaum and better health for tackle Kolton Miller. Of course, Brock Bowers reprises his role as the best tight end in football following an injury riddled 2025, so a healthier season provides another top weapon for the big man on campus.
That name would be No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, who’s hailed as the franchise quarterback if he pans out according to his collegiate pedigree. A Heisman winner and national champion, the rookie steps into an offense that he should receive the keys to sooner rather than later. While veteran field general Kirk Cousins is expected to start out as QB1, it won’t be surprising to see Mendoza take over after just a couple of rough outings from the elder statesman. could certainly elevate to higher levels than last year, especially with the guidance of Kubiak at the helm.
The defense does raise more questions. Maxx Crosby received a lucrative extension this offseason and is now joined by Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker in the front seven, so there’s certainly some talent in that front half. The unit will likely need some time to gel, though. Las Vegas’ defense was far from good last season, and while there’s been an influx of new faces, three of the franchise’s first five picks in the draft went to defense and six of their 10 of their 10 total picks were on that side of the ball. The young players may not get off to the hottest start, especially in a difficult division.
That brings us to the schedule. The AFC West is absolutely loaded between the Denver Broncos, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Kansas City Chiefs. The first two of those teams won double-digit games last season and made the postseason; the latter has Patrick Mahomes spearheading the offense and was one of the NFL’s winningest teams prior to last year. Based on their 2026 opponents’ winning percentage from last season, the Raiders fall 26th in strength of schedule with a collective mark of 0.529.
That’s inflated somewhat by the six divisional matchups, but even still, it may be tough sailing at points this season for Las Vegas, even with a revamped coaching staff and hope at quarterback. The Raiders’ win total is set at 5.5 – eclipsing that isn’t out of the question with the over favored at -150. If you’re betting on the standard line, that’s the way to go.
The season does open with a brutal stretch of games. In Week 2 it’s the Chargers, in Week 4 through Week 7 they get the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams. It doesn’t get much easier with the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos a couple of weeks after. If Las Vegas just wins the games it should win, though, there’s room to sneak in over the line of 5.5 wins. If the Raiders manage to upset a favorite and take care of business otherwise, there’s room for over 6.5 wins at +125 value as well.
NFL Pick: Raiders over 5.5 wins (-150)
