One game away from a Super Bowl, the Denver Broncos’ juggernaut fell flat in the AFC Championship Game back in January. To add insult to injury, quarterback Bo Nix fractured his foot in the postseason and required multiple offseason surgeries to fix the ailment.
Now, none of that matters. And if it did, it would simply be used as motivation for this team to push for the playoffs once again – they’ve loaded up and are surely back in contention headed into the new year.
Here’s a look at the Broncos’ win total over/under for the 2026-27 NFL season with a top betting pick.
Denver Broncos 2026 win total, best bet
From the time Sean Payton took over the Broncos, expectations have certain been elevated to heights comparable to their city’s mile-high altitude. After a 14-win campaign last year, they may be even loftier now. In 2025-26, this team dominated the competition with an above-average offense and arguably the NFL’s best defense – they allowed the second-fewest yards per game (278.2) and third-fewest points (18.3) while leading the league in sacks (64). Were it not for some terrible weather in a snowy AFC Championship Game with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, perhaps Denver could have punched a ticket to the Super Bowl.
Headed into 2026, a repeat of that regular-season success is within the realm of possibility, if not likely. The core of the defense remains intact with former DPOY Pat Surtain II, Nik Bonnito, Alex Singleton, and plenty of other notable names still playing here. Granted, John Franklin-Myers played a key role up front and left in free agency, while safety P.J. Locke also departed. Still, this was one of the top units in the NFL over the last few seasons and it still has defensive coordinator Vance Joseph calling the plays, too.
Offensively, the Broncos can step things up a notch. Nix is back and healthy after premiering during the preseason, and he’ll have the best weapon of his career at his disposal after the front office traded a first-round pick and more for Miami Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle. The 27-year-old has three seasons of 1,000+ yards under his belt, and while he comes off a shakier year of 64 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns, he dealt with unpredictable quarterback play and has proven himself as a capable WR1 in the past. He immediately fills that role for Denver, allowing an aging and newly extended Courtland Sutton to slide over as the WR2 ahead of a still-deep core of complimentary talent.
The Broncos also retained JK Dobbins and drafted fourth-round rookie Jonah Coleman, creating a trio of capable serviceable backs along with RJ Harvey. None of them are a star by any means, but they fill clear roles and will run behind an offensive line that still projects as one of the NFL’s better units. By all means, this offense should be take a step forward from last season’s, which would be nice if they can get more consistent production rather than just higher-end upside with Waddle.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Broncos’ over/under total at 9.5 wins, with the over slightly favored at -115 odds and the under at -105.
The AFC West is a very difficult division, so do keep that in mind. The Los Angeles Chargers are positioned for another campaign of double-digit wins and the Kansas City Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes headlining an offense that added Kenneth Walker… and even the Las Vegas Raiders should be respectable this season with Klint Kubiak as the new head coach and No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza expected to take the reigns of the offense at some point.
Even with that said, Denver’s strength of schedule clocks in at 18th in the NFL based on opponents’ collective 0.512 winning percentage from last season. That’s not as difficult as one might expect for a first-place team, plus the Broncos have won 10+ games in each of their two campaigns under Payton’s direction. This team has been transformed into a winner since the head coach arrived, and if the defense remains elite as it should, they should easily reach the over on this win total with 10 victories. If you believe in the offense’s upside with the addition of Waddle, even over 11.5 wins at +285 could prove a very interesting betting pick.
NFL Pick: DEN Broncos over 11.5 wins (+285)
