Western Michigan reached Detroit last December after recovering from an 0-3 start, then beat Miami 23-13 for the MAC championship. The Broncos eventually won 10 of their final 11 games, with a bowl victory completing a 10-4 season. They allowed 17.4 points per game, ninth nationally, and 305.5 yards, 17th nationally. Western Michigan now sits behind Miami on the futures board despite receiving nine championship votes from the coaches. Miami received four. The market’s ordering looks increasingly awkward after Miami’s late quarterback injury.
Below is my MAC 2026 season preview, packaged with my favorite bet on the market to take home the conference crown. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more college football betting write-ups all season long.
MAC: 2026 season preview
The Broncos found their season once Broc Lowry and Jalen Buckley took firm control of the running game. Lowry threw for 1,803 yards, rushed for 963, and scored 14 times on the ground. He averaged 7.0 yards per carry while throwing only three interceptions. Buckley supplied another 1,003 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. His best football arrived during the four most important games. Buckley ran for 570 yards at 8.5 per carry during that stretch, while Western Michigan’s scoring average jumped from 23.5 to 32.5 points.
Three offensive-line starters return around a backfield that already understands Lance Taylor’s preferred game. Western Michigan ran on 65% of its snaps last season and retains approximately 60% of its offensive production. Lowry changes the arithmetic because the defense must account for him after every mesh point. Buckley punishes widened fronts, while Lowry’s patience creates cutback lanes after linebackers declare themselves. The passing volume should remain modest. Lowry’s mobility and careful ball placement give the Broncos enough answers when opponents crowd the box.
Last year’s defense controlled games through excellent early-down work and relentless pressure. Western Michigan ranked 32nd in opponent-adjusted success rate allowed, generated 3.07 sacks per game, and collected 24 takeaways. Coordinator Chris O’Leary has since left for the NFL. Every starting front-seven defender departed with him, including Nadame Tucker and his 14.5 sacks. Only one returning front-seven player logged more than 200 FBS snaps. Western Michigan will ask a rebuilt group to preserve an unusually demanding standard.
Greer Martini received an internal promotion, allowing the Broncos to retain their terminology, pressure menu, and coverage relationships. Four starting defensive backs also return. That experienced secondary should give Martini enough flexibility to manufacture pressure while the defensive line develops. The front will allow more efficient rushing production and create fewer third-and-long opportunities. Western Michigan can absorb some regression because its offense should improve. The defense can fall from ninth nationally in scoring and remain one of the MAC’s better units.
Miami’s summer took a brutal turn when Thomas Gotkowski suffered a season-ending injury. Kansas transfer David McComb now inherits the offense after going 21 months without appearing in a game. He has an experienced line and an accomplished runner beside him. Monmouth transfer Rodney Nelson rushed for 1,805 yards, averaged 6.1 per carry, and scored 18 touchdowns. Four offensive-line starters return, giving Miami an obvious way to settle McComb. Opponents will crowd the line until he consistently completes throws outside the numbers.
The RedHawks have enough defense to keep those games manageable. Eight rotational starters return, including linebackers CJ Young and Malcolm McCain. They combined for 155 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, and five sacks. Miami must replace Adam Trick’s 8.5 sacks, although the remaining front offers more continuity than Western Michigan’s. New coordinator Gus Ragland can protect McComb with formations, play action, and Nelson’s volume. The +300 price still asks Miami to survive its quarterback change with very little offensive slippage.
Prediction, pick for 2026 MAC champion
The RedHawks have enough defense to keep those games manageable. Eight rotational starters return, including linebackers CJ Young and Malcolm McCain. They combined for 155 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, and five sacks. Miami must replace Adam Trick’s 8.5 sacks, although the remaining front offers more continuity than Western Michigan’s. New coordinator Gus Ragland can protect McComb with formations, play action, and Nelson’s volume. The +300 price still asks Miami to survive its quarterback change with very little offensive slippage.
Toledo carries the conference’s widest range of plausible outcomes. The Rockets averaged 30.8 points and allowed only 13.3 last season before replacing their coaching staff and most of the lineup. Mike Jacobs arrives with a 94-23 career record across lower-level programs. His 37-player transfer class includes 14 former Mercer players who already understand his standards. FCS Defensive Player of the Year Andrew Zock recorded 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. He gives Toledo a proven pressure source while the surrounding front comes together.
Only 33% of Toledo’s production returns, ranking 130th nationally. The interior defensive line contains little established FBS work and only two players heavier than 280 pounds. Those dimensions could become uncomfortable against Western Michigan’s rushing game and Miami’s experienced line. Toledo has six offensive linemen with more than 200 career snaps, giving that side greater stability. The Rockets could win the league if Jacobs’ imports translate quickly. At +450, the price offers modest protection against the size of that transition.
Ohio lost almost the entire offense that ranked 41st in success rate and averaged 228 rushing yards. The Bobcats return five starters, while quarterback Nick Poulos completed four passes for 19 yards last season. Their third head coach in three seasons must replace the conference’s most established rushing structure. Central Michigan offers excellent offensive-line continuity, with nine players holding at least 350 career snaps. Its defense returns only 29% of production. Eastern Michigan retains Noah Kim and significant defensive production after allowing 29.9 points per game.
Sacramento State enters its first MAC season with enough resources and transfer talent to create immediate discomfort. The Hornets still require several projections to land simultaneously at +3000. MAC games frequently reach November with small roster differences deciding fourth quarters. Lowry’s experience, Buckley’s late-season surge, and Western Michigan’s established special teams become especially valuable within that environment. Their offense can control possession while the rebuilt defense finds its footing.
The board contains a 16.4% hold. Western Michigan’s +400 price implies 20%, or approximately 17.2% after removing the margin. I place the Broncos near 24%, producing fair odds around +317. Their defensive turnover prevents complete confidence, although the offense returns the league’s best quarterback-running back partnership. Miami’s quarterback injury carries more immediate danger, while Toledo must integrate an enormous transfer class. Western Michigan enters Week 0 with the fewest offensive questions among the principal contenders.
Big 12 Winner: Western Michigan (+400)
