Colorado finally stopped a seven-game slide Tuesday, winning 3-1 behind Hunter Goodman’s immediate return and five scoreless bullpen innings. The Rockies have still scored only 16 runs across their last six games, with four performances below four runs. Washington has lost nine of 11 and owns a 2-8 record across its last 10. The Nationals scored 33 runs during that window, but Monday’s 13-run eruption distorts the picture. They managed only 20 runs across the other nine games. Tuesday’s lineup produced five hits, went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine runners. The series now sits even entering its least stable pitching matchup. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the Colorado Rockies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nationals vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Tanner Gordon has worked 18 2/3 August innings, allowing 24 hits, 11 earned runs and three homers. His 11-to-two strikeout-to-walk ratio shows that traffic has come from hittable strikes, rather than poor control. Gordon owns a 5.75 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 5.30 ERA across those four August appearances. His 4.71 expected ERA and .333 xwOBA suggest some misfortune, although neither number supports dependable run prevention. Matt Waldron presents the opposite profile. His 7.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP badly trail a 3.75 xERA and .300 xwOBA. Waldron has thrown only 3 1/3 innings across his last three appearances and has not started in 119 days.
Washington’s season-long power creates a direct problem for Gordon’s contact profile. The Nationals rank first with 185 homers and third with a .754 OPS, alongside a .248/.324/.430 slash. Gordon has allowed a 91.3 mph average exit velocity, 44% hard-hit rate and 10.1% barrel rate. His four-seamer averages 92.7 mph and carries a .483 xSLG. His slider has not solved the problem, yielding a .482 xSLG and five homers across 75 plate appearances. CJ Abrams has produced nine of his 29 homers across 33 second-half games. Daylen Lile is 9-for-21 with two doubles, two homers and seven RBIs across five games.
Lile’s recent damage includes consecutive homers, including Monday’s 420-foot shot at 105.2 mph. His overall contact profile features a .418 xSLG, 8.5% barrel rate and 94th-percentile sprint speed. Brady House supplies another useful matchup, carrying a .445 xSLG, 46.3% hard-hit rate and 11.3% barrel rate. Washington can also pressure Gordon before contact. Its MLB-leading 143 steals become dangerous against a pitcher allowing a .265 expected average and 1.49 baserunners per inning. Gordon’s 2.97 road ERA offers the strongest reason for restraint. Still, that figure covers nine appearances and only two starts. His 9.67 first-inning ERA shows how quickly hard contact can create crooked innings.
Rockies vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Colorado owns an equally interesting route against Waldron. The Rockies have led MLB with a .801 OPS against right-handed pitching since June, despite their recent scoring drought. Goodman returned Tuesday and immediately hit his 35th homer, his 20th away from Coors Field. He owns a .251/.320/.541 slash, 90.6 mph average exit velocity and tremendous 16.7% barrel rate. Goodman has produced a .552 xSLG against fastballs, including .635 against sinkers. Waldron’s sinker has allowed a .361 xwOBA and 55.2% hard-hit rate. His four-seamer sits at .347 xwOBA, creating another favorable contact path. Waldron’s knuckleball and cutter remain his potential escape routes, carrying .264 and .154 xwOBA marks.
The total asks whether either pitching staff can survive extended bullpen exposure. Colorado’s relievers own a 5.28 ERA, while Washington’s group sits at 4.29. Five Rockies relievers worked Tuesday, including closer Jordan Romano, after the rotation supplied only four innings. Waldron’s recent workload likely pushes Washington toward its bullpen by the fourth or fifth inning. Nationals Park carries a nearly neutral 0.99 run factor, but its last 10 games averaged 9.9 runs. Temperatures should sit near 86 degrees with a seven-mph wind carrying outward. Over nine at -101 also retains valuable push protection. The combination of short starters, vulnerable fastballs and compromised relief depth clears that number often enough.
Best bet: Over 9 -101, playable through -115
Projected score: Nationals 6, Rockies 4
Best bet: Nationals vs. Rockies o9.0 total runs (+100)
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