Cincinnati reaches Wednesday’s finale at 62-71 after losing three straight and four of five during its nine-game trip. The Reds have scored once across this series, producing nine hits and going 23 consecutive innings without a run. Sal Stewart finally ended the drought with a ninth-inning homer Tuesday. San Francisco has outscored Cincinnati 8-1 despite losing both starters before the third inning. Those emergency victories ended the Giants’ run of seven consecutive series losses. Their relievers have covered 13.2 innings while allowing one run, six hits, and five walks. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Reds prediction, preview
Nick Lodolo enters with a 5.04 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts across 75 innings. His recent work reveals an even shakier pitcher. Lodolo has allowed 18 hits, 10 earned runs, four homers, and four walks across 12.1 August innings. That produces a 7.30 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 2.92 HR/9, and only 6.57 K/9. Arizona punished him for 10 hits and six runs across 3.1 innings Friday. Lodolo needed 91 pitches against 22 batters and generated only two strikeouts. His 6.49 xERA, .382 xwOBA, .304 xBA, and .488 xSLG suggest that damage was hardly random.
Lodolo divides his pitches almost evenly among four-seamer, sinker, curveball, and changeup. The curveball remains vicious, carrying a 40.0% whiff rate and .230 slugging percentage. Everything else has deteriorated. Batters own a .326 average, .685 slugging percentage, and .485 xwOBA against his sinker. That pitch has generated only 9.7% whiffs and an 8.0% strikeout rate. His four-seamer has allowed a .500 slugging percentage, while his changeup owns a .370 xwOBA. Lodolo’s overall strikeout rate has fallen to 17.5%, down sharply from his established bat-missing level.
San Francisco’s recent offense remains imperfect, although this matchup fits its hottest hitter beautifully. Rafael Devers has homered three times across five games, including once during each series victory. His season contact includes 92.6 mph average exit velocity, 50.7% hard contact, and an 11.0% barrel rate. Devers has 31 doubles, 28 homers, and 74 RBIs, with 16 homers at Oracle Park. Drew Cavanaugh supplied three singles, one walk, and two RBIs Tuesday. The Giants have batted .243/.308/.386 with 11 homers across 10 games. Cincinnati has managed .215/.288/.340 with nine homers and only seven hits per game during that span.
Reds vs. Giants pick, best bet
Landen Roupp owns a 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts across 134.2 innings. His August command has collapsed, producing 16 walks, 16 strikeouts, and a 5.57 ERA across 21 innings. However, his contact profile remains dramatically stronger than Lodolo’s. Roupp carries a 3.75 xERA, .300 xwOBA, .231 xBA, and .342 xSLG. Opponents have generated 86.1 mph average exit velocity, 29.3% hard contact, and a microscopic 4.8% barrel rate. His curveball has limited hitters to .200/.285 with 34.4% whiffs. His changeup has allowed .171/.228 with a 30.3% whiff rate. Cincinnati’s best path involves waiting out Roupp’s sinker, which owns a .401 wOBA and 8.5% whiff rate.
Oracle Park expects temperatures near 67 degrees, minimal wind, and no rain. Cincinnati owns the fresher bullpen, although that group ranks 24th with a 4.45 ERA. San Francisco’s 4.22 bullpen ERA also carries less weight after 13.2 innings during this series. That workload removes considerable appeal from the under at −107. Lodolo’s current contact quality also makes Cincinnati difficult to trust at −103. Roupp can concede walks without surrendering the loud contact that has buried Lodolo. San Francisco has produced more dependable at-bats and already exposed Cincinnati’s inability to sustain traffic.
Best bet: Giants ML at −104, playable to −120.
Projected score: Giants 5, Reds 3.
Best bet: Giants (-105) vs. Reds
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