Over the last 13 seasons, the NFC West has appeared in the Super Bowl an impressive seven times and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times. The Seattle Seahawks are the current defending champions, having defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
Over the last 11 seasons, the Seahawks have won the division three times, the Los Angeles Rams four times, the San Francisco 49ers three times, and the Arizona Cardinals once. The Seahawks have occupied the cellar once, while the Rams have never been in the basement. The 49ers are the interesting team, as there has been no middle ground. It’s either penthouse or the outhouse, finishing last in the division five times. There have only been three seasons when the 49ers finished in the middle. I respect it.
The division has produced three 10+ win teams twice in the last five seasons. Can the feat be replicated again this season?
Here’s how things look on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Los Angeles Rams
This team is stacked on both sides of the ball. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Rams as favorites to win it all at +550. The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are tied for second at +1000.
Last season, the Rams led the league in total yards, passing yards, and points. Matthew Stafford was amazing at 37, leading the league in passing yards (4,707), passing touchdowns (46), and touchdown rate (7.7%). Whew. There will likely be some regression, as his career touchdown rate is 4.8% and he threw 20 and 24 touchdowns in the prior two seasons. That said, he does have two other seasons with over 40 passing touchdowns and a touchdown rate over 6%. The two likely causes for regression are injury and Rams dominance on defense and/or on the ground.
The offense is running it back. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are a delectable duo in the backfield. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are devastating forces at wide receiver while the offensive line is ranked 11th by PFF.
Defensively, the unit racked up the fifth-most turnovers and allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns. Los Angeles ranked fourth in pressure rate, and its 47 sacks tied for the sixth-most, despite blitzing at the third-fewest rate in the league. And the defense got stronger on paper with the acquisitions of pass rusher Myles Garrett, who broke the NFL record with 23 sacks last season, and cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie.
This is a scary, scary team if the health gods don’t get bored. And I didn’t even mention that Aaron Donald could be a part of the team wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. Scary indeed.
Seattle Seahawks
TThe defending champion Seahawks lost running back Kenneth Walker III and safety Coby Bryant in free agency. But the biggest loss could be offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. Brian Fleury will now call plays, and there is uncertainty because this will be his first OC rodeo.
Seattle used a first-round pick on running back Jadarian Price and hoped he and Zach Charbonnet would buttress the loss of Walker. Unfortunately, Charbonnet is still recovering from ACL surgery. Sam Darnold is still at quarterback and has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, one of the best receivers in the game, but can the duo replicate last season’s success without Kubiak calling plays?
The adage that defense wins championships proved true again last season. Seattle allowed the fewest points during the regular season and stifled opponents in the playoffs. The unit ranked sixth in turnovers, pressure rate, and sacks (47). As with the Rams, the Seahawks generated all that pressure despite blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate. The unit should once again be among, if not the best in the league.
San Francisco 49ers
Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall is out for the season. Tight end George Kittle is coming off an Achilles injury. Running back Christian McCaffrey just had a 413-touch season. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. will start at wide receiver, but Evans is 33 years old and only played eight games last season, while Samuel is back after being traded last season for a fifth-round pick. De’Zhaun Stribling has played well during the preseason and been the talk of the offseason, but he’s still a rookie who hasn’t played a down of meaningful football. Questions abound. And that was just on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively, the 49ers were a mess. The loss of Nick Bosa was huge, as San Francisco had the third-lowest pressure rate last season and ranked dead last in sacks by a wide margin (20). The 49ers blitzed at the fourth-lowest rate. The 16 turnovers were the sixth-fewest. Bosa is back, but he has an extensive injury history and hasn’t practiced in a few weeks. Raheem Morris is the new coordinator and has plenty of NFL experience. He’s known for trying to confuse quarterbacks, but the secondary could break down, as many of the pieces are young and it will take time to learn the new scheme. At the end of the day, can the 49ers get pressure on the quarterback?
The 49ers split with both the Rams and Seahawks last season; the coaching staff is great, and there is talent all over the team. If things break right, San Francisco could be right in the mix.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals could be much better than expected, with talent all over the place, especially on offense. That said, the other teams in the division are just so much better.
If the Cardinals only had a quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is decent and balled out last season, but he is not a franchise quarterback and probably won’t play every game this season, as Carson Beck will likely get some experience. It’s a shame because Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and Trey McBride are a potent trio of weapons in the passing game. The running back group was bolstered with Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier, but Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain. The Cardinals should be able to move the ball and score points.
The defense. Oh, the defense. Last season, Arizona had the fourth-lowest pressure rate and third-fewest sacks. The unit allowed the sixth-most yards, and opposing offenses ran the third-most plays. The 380 first downs allowed were the most, while the 31 passing touchdowns allowed were the fifth-most. There were no major acquisitions to bolster the unit, so it could be a case of déjà vu.
Conclusion
The Rams have a great quarterback with weapons to complement. The coach is an offensive wizard so that Los Angeles will score points. The defense should be one of the league’s best units. Offense, Defense. Special teams. The Rams are favorites to win the division and the Super Bowl for a few reasons. The NFL is a funny beast, though, as injuries or funny bounces from the Stewie-shaped ball can change fortunes. That said, it’s hard not to see this Rams team winning the NFC West.
