Taking place as part of today’s 15-game MLB slate, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off with the New York Mets.
These two National League opponents opened up the series yesterday in a 3-2 victory by the Mets in 10 innings. The Brewers will look to even up the series tonight, with Dustin May and Robert Stock getting the start for their respective squads.
Looking at the odds, the Brewers enter as -149 favorites to win outright and hold +107 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets hold +139 odds of producing the upset, and the run total is set at 8.5.
Brewers at Mets prediction, preview
The Milwaukee Brewers enter with an 81-51 record on the season, which gives them a 5.5-game lead in the National League Central and is the best record in all of baseball. They are coming off back-to-back losses, but have won six of their past nine. On the season overall, the Brewers have gone 68-64 to the run line, and the run total is 56-73-3 to the over/under.
Dustin May will get the start tonight for Milwaukee, marking his fourth start with the Brewers and 25th of the season. On the season overall, May is posting a 6-8 record, a 4.57 ERA, a 1.298 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, and 118 strikeouts tallied across 124.0 innings pitched. Across his three starts with the Brewers, the former World Series champion has thrown 15.0 innings, allowing 14 hits, 10 earned runs, and 12 strikeouts. He has a 1-1 overall record and 6.00 ERA thus far. May has faced off with this Mets lineup in 40 at-bats in his career and tallied eight strikeouts while allowing nine hits in these opportunities.
Looking at the offensive production, the Brewers are slashing a collective .254/.337/.396 with a .732 OPS this season. Milwaukee ranks sixth in the MLB in hits, fifth in runs, last in home runs, and 16th in strikeouts. William Contreras leads the team with 127 hits on the season, including 12 home runs and 65 RBI. Brice Turang adds 123 hits, 16 home runs, and 75 RBI, while Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers also have 109+ hits on the season. Bauers is posting a team-high 23 home runs and 75 RBI, while Garrett Mitchell, Gary Sanchez, and Christian Yelich also play key roles.
The New York Mets hold a 60-72 record on the season, which slots them in last place in the NL East. They are 10.5 games back from the final Wild Card seed, and enter this matchup having won seven of their past 10 games. On the season overall, the Mets have gone 61-71 to the run line, and the run total is 58-64-10 to the over/under.
Robert Stock will be taking the mound for New York tonight, marking just his fifth start of the season. The 36-year-old has thrown just 16.2 innings this season and is posting an 0-2 record, a 5.40 ERA, a 1.680 WHIP, 11 walks, and 19 strikeouts tallied. He has thrown just 92.0 innings at the MLB level in his career and just 19.1 since 2021. Christian Yelich is the only member of the Brewers’ roster to have faced Stock, with one strikeout and one walk in these two plate appearances.
The Mets’ offense is posting collective slash lines of .237/.307/.392 with a .699 OPS. New York ranks 24th in the MLB in hits, 23rd in runs, ninth in home runs and 13th in strikeouts. Juan Soto headlines the production with 21 home runs, 52 RBI and a .947 OPS, but he remains on the IL with a calf injury. Bo Bichette has settled in, leading the team with 138 hits, 14 home runs and 66 RBI, while Carson Benge adds 134 hits of his own, along with 16 home runs and 53 RBI. Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien have each also play important roles.
Brewers at Mets pick, best bet
The Mets have played better baseball of late, but there is still a sizable gap in the quality of these two teams. This is not a premier pitching matchup for either side, and my lean is toward the game total going over the 8.5 run line.
Robert Stock is coming off back-to-back encouraging performances in which he has limited opponents to just one earned run across 8.2 innings pitched. But he was lit up by the Pittsburgh Pirates for eight earned runs in three innings pitched before this. Walks have been an issue for Stock, with 11 walks tallied in 16.2 innings and at least three free passes issued in three consecutive starts. This will be problematic against a Brewers’ team that has found its identity by having an impressive plate approach, never chasing, and playing small-ball. Milwaukee ranks last in the MLB in home runs, but has the second-most walks in the league, the fifth-most runs, and the sixth-most hits. Expect a clear approach from the Brewers to force counts and for Stock to continue handing out walks at a high rate.
While Dustin May has not pitched to his peak of late, including seven earned runs allowed against the Mariners in the previous game, there should be a higher level of trust for what he has shown in his MLB career compared to Stock. New York has not found as clear of an identity at the plate this season, with injuries being a part of this. They managed to secure a 3-2 win last night, but it took extra innings to do so.
The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games against the Brewers following a win, and failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against Milwaukee following a home win. The Brewers have also won each of their last six games against the Mets after going to extra innings, and covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games against New York following a road loss.
Expect a clear effort from the Brewers to work counts and force Stock to make mistakes. It has felt as if he is treading water until an implosion occurs, and Milwaukee has the firepower to ensure this is the case. Even with the Mets playing better baseball of late, expect the Brewers’ advanced plate approach to be the difference in this game as Milwaukee gradually adds runs to take full control of the game. I am backing the Brewers on the run line and expect Milwaukee to even the series up in a comfortable win tonight.
Best bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+107)
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