There’s a premier matchup on tonight’s MLB slate that’s sure to grab plenty of eyeballs and betslips. At 7:15 p.m. ET, the Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers again in a battle of true World Series hopefuls. With plenty of stars on both sides, this should be a great game, even without the top arms on deck.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Dodgers vs. Braves game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Braves prediction, preview
This series opened with a 4-3 win for the Braves last night, which pushed them to 77-55 on the year with a +111 run differential. Atlanta is 22-15 since the All-Star break as well, good for the third-best record in baseball over this span. The Dodgers are 80-52 overall with a +150 differential, so of course, they remain one of the best clubs in the MLB. They’re just 19-16 since the break, but are 7-3 over their last 10 games.
Los Angeles sends RHP Roki Sasaki (5-5) to the mound for his 23rd start. He’s tossed to the tune of a 4.42 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 114 punchouts over 116.0 IP. His K% is 23.1% but a 9.3% BB% is on the higher side. However, he does generate chases and whiffs at an above-average level, and his fastball velocity remains elite at an average of 97.9 mph.
For Atlanta, AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0) gets the nod for the third time this year. He only just returned from Tommy John surgery, so he’s thrown just 8.2 innings in two games thus far. He went 4.1 innings in each and has allowed nine hits, five walks and six earned runs while striking out seven batters. In the small sample, he has a 17.5% K% and a 12.5% BB%.
The Dodgers’ bats had been fairly cold coming out of the break, but they’ve begun to get back on track as of late. Over the season’s second half, they’re 19th in total runs with a .716 OPS and a .154 ISO. The BB% falling to 7.6% is something of an issue that has dropped the OBP. Still, L.A. did score at least four runs in each of its last six games prior to last night. The club also slashes .261/.340/.427 with a .767 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Over the same sample of the second half, the Braves have been marginally more productive at the plate. They’re 11th in runs scored with a .721 OPS. While the OBP is way down at .306, they’re still 13th in wOBA at .315 and have a nice .167 ISO. Granted, a low walk rate is a similar issue with a 7.2% BB%, but that’s been a problem throughout the campaign. Atlanta also slashes .248/.313/.412 with a .726 OPS vs. right-handers on the full year.
Dodgers vs. Braves pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as a -124 Moneyline favorite on the road, with the Braves a +116 home underdog. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
Atlanta has good bats and a better bullpen than Los Angeles, but it’s tough to trust Smith-Shawver on the mound. He was a quality arm prior to the UCL injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery last year, but the two starts he’s put on tape since returning were not the most encouraging. He went 4.1 innings in both. In the first, he allowed four hits and two walks for two earned runs with four strikeouts – not a bad showing. His second game was shakier, though, giving up five hits and three walks for four earned runs, striking out just three hitters.
Is he an arm you want to trust tonight against a Dodgers lineup that has a ton of talent and one of the highest ceilings in baseball? Probably not, since they’re one of the best teams against right-handed pitching. Sasaki has largely been much more stable in recent starts with five-to-six innings of work and no more than two earned runs allowed over his last few outings. I’m comfortable taking the team with the better starter here, especially as Smith-Shawver continues to work back into form – though he could be better by the end of the regular season.
