Last season, the Indianapolis Colts were cruising, as they started out 8-2 headed into their bye week and traded for New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner, a former All-Pro, to anchor their secondary. However, in a Week 14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, it all came undone; quarterback Daniel Jones went down with a torn Achilles tendon in the first quarter, and the Colts never recovered, dropping that game and finishing just 8-9.
Now that Jones is healthy and expected to start Week 1 after signing a short-term deal in the offseason, Indianapolis has some hope for the coming season.
The Colts’ over-under win total is set to 7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colts win total pick for NFL regular season
Given that Indianapolis won eight of its first 10 games last season, and its only two losses were one-score affairs on the road against eventual playoff teams, this feels like a low bar. The Colts arguably took a small step back in the offseason, trading Michael Pittman Jr. for a late pick swap, but running back Jonathan Taylor is capable of winning eight games by himself and tight end Tyler Warren, the team’s second-leading receiver as a rookie, is poised for another strong season. Even at the age of 34, Keenan Allen is still productive enough.
Indianapolis might well start off 0-3, as it starts off with games against the Baltimore Ravens at home, the Kansas City Chiefs on the road, and the Houston Texans at home. It isn’t all bad, though; in addition to their divisional opponents, the Colts will play the NFC East and the AFC North, and while the Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals project to be better than they were last season, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ streak of non-losing seasons could finally come to an end if 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers’ regression continues. Indianapolis will also have a home game against the Miami Dolphins, who could be the worst team in the league this season.
Some of the Colts’ opponents play in cold-weather climates that could present a challenge for them, but they’ve managed to avoid most of them during the winter. While a road game against the Philadelphia Eagles in December is a challenge, it’ll be the only time Indianapolis will play a 2025 playoff team on the road in a cold-weather city in either November or December.
Given that the Colts finished eighth-to-last by PFF’s defense grades last season and fifth-to-last by coverage grades, the fact that they went 8-9 anyway is remarkable. Indianapolis should definitely be better on that side of the ball in 2026, now that Gardner (who played just four games for the Colts) has had a full training camp with his teammates and Charvarius Ward, who was limited to seven games after suffering a concussion in a freak pregame incident, should be healthy. Additionally, Indianapolis used five of its eight draft picks on defensive players, including the 53rd overall pick on linebacker CJ Allen, who had eight tackles for a loss as a junior at Georgia last season. It also signed several veteran defensive linemen, though none are standouts.
Of course, there’s a scenario in which Jones’ mobility is sapped and he takes a while to get back into the groove, but he’d previously recovered from a torn ACL in the same leg in 2023 and produced by far his career-best season in 2025. Between Taylor, Warren, and Gardner, the Colts have enough talent to win eight games even if Jones is merely average.
