The Houston Astros aren’t a great team this year as they contend for a weak division, but they sure looked like it last night in a 9-7 comeback win over the New York Yankees. The latest edition of this AL rivalry continues tonight with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. Yankees game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Yankees prediction, preview
With last night’s win, the Astros snapped a three-game skid in a big way. Now, they’re back at .500 with a 66-66 record, but they still have a -42 run differential despite largely playing much better baseball since the All-Star break than they put on display in the campaign’s first half. The Yankees, however, are 74-57 on the season with a +98 differential; much closer to the production you see from true contenders.
RHP Peter Lambert (8-7) is in line to start for Houston. The 29-year-old has looked like a breakout arm for a significant chunk of the year, and his numbers on the season still look quite good with a 3.68 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and 120 strikeouts over 122.1 IP. His K% is 23.3% with a 9.3% BB%. Even despite a blow-up game of nine earned runs in his last outing, he’s been quite consistent for the most part.
New York sends rookie RHP Elmer Rodriguez (0-2) to the bump. He’s started four games with 17.0 innings of work, delivering a 4.76 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP and 10 strikeouts. The sample size remains very small, but his K% sits at 12.0% with a 13.3% BB%, though he’s logged an excellent barrel rate with low average exit velocity.
Since the All-Star break, the Astros’ offense has been solid, but not elite. They’re 15th in scoring despite holding the ninth-best OPS at .734 and a .163 ISO that sits 11th. A .289 BABIP means that there’s room for improvement, but the club does come in at seventh in wRC+ even despite that. And against right-handers this year, they slash .245/.320/.417 with a .737 OPS.
The Yankees’ offense was stellar in the early going this year, but it’s clear that they still miss Aaron Judge quite badly. Since the break, they’re second-to-last in runs scored with just 3.54 per game. Over this span, the OPS is third-to-last at .650 with a .152 ISO, and a 26.6% K% is an obvious issue as the MLB’s worst mark. The wRC+ clocks in at 28th among all clubs. Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees also slash .227/.310/.406 with a .716 OPS on the full season.
Astros vs. Yankees pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as a -115 Moneyline favorite at home, with the Astros in play as a +107 road underdog. The total is set at nine combined runs.
New York’s bats woke up with seven runs and 10 hits last night, and they put up eight runs in the prior matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. That’s far from the norm over the season’s second half, though, even with the club having won five of its last seven outings. If the lineup has a more typical outing, it could spell serious trouble. Facing Lambert isn’t easy, either – he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts dating back to the start of July, with his most recent outing the lone exception there. He probably won’t pitch particularly deep into this one, but he’s been quite effective this season and has been better on the road with a 2.98 ERA across eight starts away from home.
Rodriguez is a little bit more vulnerable based off the very limited sample of his four starts. He’s pitched no more than 4.2 innings in any of them and hasn’t thrown in the MLB since June, having just been called back up. His Triple-A stats do look quite good with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, but control issues have been a serious problem in the big leagues so far. If he’s not dialed in under the lights, it’ll be up to the bullpen to save the day. That unit is excellent, but banking on a comeback if Rodriguez falters may be tough if New York’s hitters are slow out of the gate.
All things considered, I actually do really like Houston for an upset victory tonight – Lambert is the real deal and a repeat of last night’s scoring explosion feels unlikely.
