Just two games of WNBA action are taking place on tonight’s Wednesday slate. Opening things up with a 7:10 p.m. ET first tip, the Golden State Valkyries will take on the Connecticut Sun.
This is the third and final meeting between these two teams this season. Golden State has come out victorious in both the previous matchups. The Valkyries won 97-70 in the first matchup on May 25th, then followed it up with a 79-64 win in their most recent matchup on July 10th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Valkyries enter as 13.5-point favorites and hold -1100 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +700 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 151.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Valkyries at Sun matchup.
Valkyries at Sun Preview
The Golden State Valkyries enter with a 26-11 record on the season, which is the second-best in the WNBA. They enter this matchup following a victory over the Minnesota Lynx and have won 16 of their past 20 games. On the season overall, the Valkyries have gone 20-17 against the spread, and the game total is 16-21 to the over/under.
Gabby Williams headlines the production for Golden State, averaging 14.4 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Janelle Salaun adds 13.1 points and 3.8 rebounds off the bench while shooting 39.0% on three-pointers on a team-leading 6.2 attempts per game. Veronica Burton contributes 12.5 points and a team-high 5.6 assists per game, while Kayla Thornton, Kiah Stokes and Cecilia Zandalasini each also play key roles.
Golden State is scoring 82.5 points per game, which ranks 14th in the WNBA. It also ranks seventh in offensive rating, 15th in field-goal percentage and seventh in three-point percentage while launching the most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are averaging 76.3 points per game against Golden State, the lowest mark in the league. The Valkyries also rank first in defensive rating, first in opponent field-goal percentage and seventh in opponent three-point percentage.
The season has largely slipped away for the Connecticut Sun, as they have dropped to 14th place in the WNBA standings with their 10-26 record. Connecticut has officially been eliminated from playoff contention, although it is coming off a win over the Chicago Sky last night and it has won three of its past seven. On the season overall, the Sun have gone 18-19 to the spread, and the game total is 18-19 to the over/under.
Brittney Griner headlines the production for the Sun, posting averages of 13.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Griner missed last night’s matchup with a knee injury, and her status is currently uncertain for tonight. Leila Lacan and Aneesah Morrow each pitch in 11.6 points of their own, with Morrow leading the team with 8.9 rebounds per game. Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa are also averaging in double figures, although Nelson-Ododa also missed the previous game due to a knee issue of her own. Diamond Miller and Charlisse Leger-Walker also play key roles.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 79.3 points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. Connecticut also ranks 15th in offensive rating, 13th in field-goal percentage and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.9 points per game against the Sun, which ranks sixth in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, ninth in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
Valkyries at Sun Pick, Best Bet
There is quite a gap in talent and production between these two teams, and this has been put on full display in both matchups this season. The Valkyries picked up a 97-70 win in their first matchup, leading from wire-to-wire and extending their advantage to as many as 34 points. Golden State covered the 13.5-point spread. In the second matchup, the Valkyries produced a 79-64 win. The Sun were able to extend a nine-point lead early, but Golden State pushed the lead to as many as 22 points and held control for 62% of the matchup. The Valkyries covered the 5.5-point spread in this matchup as well.
My lean is certainly toward the Valkyries getting the victory and covering the significant spread in this matchup once again. The Sun are limping to the finish line and playing on the second half of a back-to-back while already battling injuries. In contrast, the Valkyries look the part of a postseason threat and will be eager to assert themselves just as they have in each of the previous two meetings between these two sides.
However, my best bet for this matchup is for the Connecticut Sun team total to remain under 68.5 points. Connecticut ranks dead last in the WNBA in scoring at 79.3 points per game, while also ranking dead last in offensive rating and three-point percentage. This will be problematic against an elite Valkyries defense, which ranks first in defensive rating and gives up the fewest points per game at 76.3 per contest.
In the previous two meetings between these two sides, the Sun have been limited to 70 and 64 points. Connecticut has been held to under 68.5 points in seven games this season, while the Valkyries have held teams under this line in six matchups. This includes limiting the WNBA-leading Minnesota Lynx to 66 points in the previous game, and they have held the Mystics to just 49 points in a matchup this season.
Connecticut simply lacks enough reliable offensive creators to consistently crack this high-level defense. This will especially be the case with the tired legs from last night’s matchup and the list of injuries the Sun are already dealing with. Golden State ranks last in the league in pace, and expect it to take control of this matchup to make it a half-court battle while being more efficient on both sides of the ball. Expect the scoring opportunities to remain limited and for the 68.5 team total to be too high for this struggling Sun team against this elite defense.
