Don’t look now, but the Guardians might be starting to take a bit of a stranglehold on the final AL Wild Card spot.
The narrative for optimism down the stretch in Cleveland has been pretty consistent: Ride an incredibly easy schedule to the promise land. Still, the Guardians are actually taking advantage of their good fortune, having won six games in a row following Tuesday’s come-from-behind, extra-innings victory.
Can they sweep away the Angels and keep lengthening their lead? Let’s dive into this matinee tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Angels prediction, preview
Before we discuss Grayson Rodriguez, you have to remember that the bar for “good” news when it comes to the Angels’ pitching staff is extremely low. With that said, it seems like the former top prospect might be finding his footing a little in Los Angeles. Rodriguez did not allow an earned run over seven innings in his last outing against the Astros on Thursday, putting his ERA at 3.33 for his past five starts as a whole. It’s a span of time where Rodriguez’s strikeout rate is back up to an encouraging 27.7% and, crucially, his opponent hard contact rate is down at just 31.9%. For the totality of 2026, that figure is at 46.5%, which ranks in the third percentile of the league. Needless to say, it had been Rodriguez’s Achilles heel.
It’s not like today’s matchup with the Guardians’ lineup is all that daunting, either. While Cleveland has been winning a lot of games in recent days, it’s mostly been on the back of the club’s pitching staff. To wit, the Guardians own just a 100 wRC+ across the past two weeks, combining that perfectly league-average mark with the 27th ranked ISO (.118). Steven Kwan is on fire at the plate, but he has no pop. Jose Ramirez appears to finally be turning things around after a three-double performance on Tuesday, yet the slugger hasn’t hit a long ball since June 6. Even top prospect Angel Genao only has one home run in his 68 plate appearances at the MLB level. Until Cleveland can unlock some power, their lineup will remain inconsistent and “pesky” at best.
Finally, there’s Joey Cantillo. The lefty is not the big name in the Guardians’ rotation. That would be either Parker Messick or Gavin Williams. However, few pitchers in baseball have been as effective as Cantillo over the past 10 weeks. Dating back to June 13, Cantillo’s managed a 2.84 ERA and a 2.67 FIP across 13 starts and 63.1 innings. Within that stretch, the 26-year-old flaunts a 29.7% strikeout rate and he’s limited opponents to 0.57 home runs per nine. Walks remain an issue for the southpaw, but just be aware, Cantillo is pitching much better than you probably would’ve assumed.
Guardians vs. Angels pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
Rodriguez is coming off the best start of his Angels tenure, while Cantillo’s 2.67 FIP since June 13 is the fifth-best qualified mark in MLB. Add in the fact that Los Angeles sits dead-last in the league in ISO (.110) and expected wOBA (.278) in August, and you have to begin to wonder where all these runs are supposed to come from.
