On Sunday afternoon, Barcelona showed no signs of rust in its start to the 2026/27 season, throttling Elche, 5-0, although it only sits fifth in the table so far because most other teams have played two matches.
The Blaugrana will look to climb atop the table on Thursday afternoon with a 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) clash against Athletic Bilbao, a traditional giant coming off of one of its worst seasons in recent memory. They will likely have a marquee reinforcement; 2026 World Cup Golden Ball winner Rodri is expected to make his team debut.
Barcelona is a -350 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to take all three points, and Los Leones are +850. There are +500 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this much-anticipated clash and provide my favorite bet.
Barcelona vs. Athletic Bilbao Best Bet:
- Barcelona to Win in Shutout (+125): Even with Nico Williams back healthy, I just don’t trust Athletic Bilbao’s attack. Los Leones have scored just one goal against Barcelona in their last seven matches, and with Rodri and João Cancelo now joining what was already one of Spain’s strongest defenses, I don’t see how the Basque side gets one past Joan García.
Barcelona vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, pick
Despite some recent financial troubles, the Blaugrana have once again emerged as the major power in Spain, winning La Liga in 2024/25 in somewhat of a surprise and repeating in more dominant fashion in 2025/26. Though they slipped in two of their knockout competitions, losing in both the Copa del Rey and Champions League to Atlético Madrid, they still enter this season with the expectation of winning both competitions. Meanwhile, Athletic Club finished just 12th, its worst finish since 2018/19, as injuries limited star winger Nico Williams to just 25 games. Los Leones and Villarreal were both eliminated in the Champions League League Phase, marking a relatively disappointing tournament for Spanish teams in that competition overall.
Especially after adding Rodri, the core of Barcelona’s squad is basically the side that just won the World Cup with Spain. Pedri, Rodri, and Dani Olmo could all feature together in the midfield, with Lamine Yamal on the right and, possibly, Pau Cubarsí as one of the center-backs. Given how well that core played at the World Cup, with some combination of Anthony Gordon, Raphinha, and Karim Adeyemi up front, it would be surprising if Barcelona didn’t score 95 goals this season like it did in 2025/26. All that passing connectivity and chemistry brought results for the Blaugrana last season; they managed the most shots on target per 90 minutes and the second-most goals per shot. They weren’t quite so clean defensively against top competition, but Athletic Bilbao doesn’t qualify as that in its current form. They still allowed fewer goals than any team except for Real Madrid and allowed the second-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, and they played the offsides trap to perfection. Barcelona should be better defensively this season after bringing in Rodri and João Cancelo, and Joan García, despite playing second fiddle to Unai Simón during the World Cup, was arguably La Liga’s best shot-stopper last season.
Athletic Club had a more modest summer, but because of the club’s long-standing policy of only signing players from the Basque region, it’s never a huge player in the transfer market. But Los Leones do have some talent; Williams partnered with Yamal to form one of the most devastating wing duos in both the 2024 Euros and 2026 World Cup, and he provided the game-winning assist to Ferrán Torres in the final. His older brother Iñaki also featured at the World Cup for Ghana, and Aymeric Laporte was a regular starter in the back line alongside Cubarsí. Athletic Club did a decent job setting up chances, ranking eighth in shots on target per 90 minutes, but it wasn’t clinical with its finishing, ranking fourth-to-last in goals per shot on target. It was also sloppy in possession, being tackled and intercepted more times than any other team, and excepting Williams’ health, it’s hard to see a pathway to easy improvement in either facet. Given their core of Laporte and Simón, Los Leones also arguably underperformed defensively, ranking just 11th in opponent shots on target per 90 minutes, and Simón had a particularly rough season, ranking fifth-to-last in save percentage. They did do a good job recording interceptions, but they fouled too much, a dangerous game against a Barça team with some excellent set piece play.
In some ways, Athletic Bilbao is a good matchup for Barcelona, and it’s unlikely that the Blaugrana will win 5-0 like they did in the season opener or in last season’s Supercopa semifinal against the Basque outfit. Hansi Flick’s side loves to control the pace of play, and Los Leones’ ability to play the passing lanes could result in a few easy opportunities off of interceptions. Additionally, they allowed very few crosses and were the second-best team at playing the offsides trap, taking away some of Yamal’s and Gordon’s biggest strengths. Ultimately, though, I just don’t trust Los Leones’ attack; they haven’t scored against Barcelona in any competition since August 24, 2024. Simón deserves some credit for his performance in the World Cup, but I think La Roja would’ve won with the exact same record if García was in goal instead.
