We saw a wild 13-1 blowout in favor of the Baltimore Orioles yesterday as they took the opening game of this road series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Tonight, the battle of the birds continues as these clubs meet again at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Orioles vs. Cardinals game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
The Orioles’ dominant win last night improved their record to 64-68 and brought their run differential to -23 on the year. It may not sound like much, but having gone 18-17 since the All-Star break, they’re just 2.5 games shy of a Wild Card berth. The Cardinals are also in the running for a postseason berth in the NL, but they’re five games shy at 66-67 with a -14 differential. After dropping 22 of their 38 contests since the break, the season may be starting to slip away from them.
Baltimore sends RHP Kyle Bradish (7-12) to the bump this evening. He has a 3.70 ERA despite a 1.38 WHIP, and he’s struck out 129 hitters over his 138.2 IP. His K% is 22.0% with a 10.2% BB%, bringing largely average marks in terms of his statistical profile. However, he does have a 76th-percentile ground-ball rate.
St. Louis’ starter is RHP Michael McGreevy (5-9), who’s vastly overperformed expectations. He has a 3.54 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, logging 96 punchouts over 137.1 IP. He has a low 17.0% K% with a nice 6.5% BB%, but he’s far outdone a 5.31 xERA and .280 xBA that rank in the seventh and fifth percentiles, respectively.
The Orioles’ offense comes in with 149 runs over the season’s second half, an average of 4.26 per game. They’re 19th in OPS over this span at .700, though they’ve been weighed down a bit by a lower .278 BABIP. The good news is that the ISO is .164, however, a 25.4% K% is on the high side. Baltimore also slashes .236/.321/.396 with a .717 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
The Cardinals have posted 157 runs since the All-Star break, good for an average of only 4.13 per outing. The club’s .672 OPS falls 25th, and a .122 ISO is lower than all but one other team’s over the same sample. On the full year, the Redbirds slash .242/.314/.378 with a .693 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Orioles vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Orioles as a -108 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, with the Cardinals in play as a +101 underdog at home. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
Personally, I like the under on the 8.5 run total here. Bradish has kept his ERA down and has allowed just two earned runs in three of his last four starts; McGreevy has been slightly shakier lately with three earned runs allowed in three of his last four but a better ERA on the ear. Neither is an ace, but neither offense looks particularly impressive at the moment, either. The 13-run explosion from Baltimore was incredible, but it won’t happen again tonight.
