The Mercury are hosting the Mystics on Tuesday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Washington is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 167.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mercury vs. Mystics Preview
The Mystics just easily defeated the Mercury in Washington on Aug. 9, 95-75, and now, these clubs will go head-to-head for back-to-back matchups in Phoenix. The Mystics are bound for the playoffs and have a chance to improve their seed with seven games remaining in the regular season. Currently, Washington is the No. 7 seed at 22-15 and the club is only a half game back of the Liberty for the No. 6 seed.
The Mercury have much less to play for at this point of the season. After making it to the WNBA Finals last season, Phoenix has already been eliminated from the playoffs with just seven games remaining. The Mercury are the No. 11 seed at 13-24.
The Mystics pride themselves on the defensive end, ranking third in defensive rating, but they can struggle on the other side of the ball, ranking 13th in offensive rating. Still, the Mystics have a strong, young trio in Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, who can thrive in plus matchups like this one vs. the Mercury.
Phoenix ranks 12th in both offensive and defensive rating. Despite being a long shot to make the playoffs, the Mercury went out and traded for Kelsey Plum at the deadline, who is on an expiring contract and could walk this offseason. To get the star guard, Phoenix traded Monique Akoa Makani, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick to the Sparks. This was a ton to give up for Plum on the last year of her deal and if she decides to take her talents elsewhere this offseason, the Mercury will look like fools for this questionable trade.
After missing the last three games with a calf injury, Plum will be back for Phoenix tonight, but the squad is only 1-4 with her in the lineup and she ranks just 12th in plus/minus for the team. Plum is a ball-dominant player who is already leading the Mercury with a 31% usage rate and she hasn’t exactly gelled well with Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas.
This trio has seven more games to figure it out and to convince Plum to re-sign with Phoenix this offseason, but this group finding their footing tonight is going to be a challenge with the Mystics’ stout defense on the other side. Another big concern for the Mercury is that the team and veteran DeWanna Bonner agreed to a buyout yesterday.
The 39-year-old wants to compete for her third championship with this possibly being her last season and Bonner exiting is a huge loss for the Mercury, as she was undoubtedly one of their best defenders despite her age.
This season, Phoenix’s net rating is -8.0 with Bonner off the floor, which is 5.1 points per 100 possessions worse than with her on. Natasha Mack is likely to start in Bonner’s place and is a solid veteran in her own right, but she is a downgrade from Bonner and the two-time champion will certainly be missed.
Mercury vs. Mystics Pick, Best Bet
The Mystics dominated the Mercury a few weeks ago and while Phoenix will be the host this time around, Washington should get another win.
The Mystics are just 9-8 SU on the road, but the Mercury are just 5-13 SU at home, so having the home-court advantage hasn’t mattered much for this Phoenix team. The Mystics are a league-best 22-15 ATS and Washington -1.5 is a strong wager.
