Yesterday evening, the opening matchup of the series between the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks got plenty chippy before the Cubbies took a decisive 7-0 victory. Tonight, they run it back in the desert with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Cubbies are 76-56 on the year with a +122 run differential; since the All-Star break alone, they’re an excellent 22-14 as well. This is a club that’s poised to make noise in the postseason, though catchup up to the division lead may be tough at 5.5 games shy in the NL Central. While certainly not a contender, the Diamondbacks have also been good as of late with a 69-63 record and a +2 run differential; those aren’t stellar marks, but they’re also 20-16 since the break and have played much better baseball than in the season’s opening stages.
RHP Clay Holmes (5-6) is set to start for Chicago tonight, carrying an excellent 2.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP into this game in his 68.2 IP. He’s struck out 50 hitters and has a low 18.0% K%, but his BB% is average at 8.3%. What he does well is force ground balls – at a 98th-percentile rate – and limit barrels, also generating an above-average chase rate.
Fellow RHP Brandon Pfaadt (7-1) is the starter for Arizona. He’s tossed 98.1 innings both as a starter and out of the bullpen, amassing a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has just 69 strikeouts, but a 6.0% BB% is excellent and counters a low 17.1% K% to a point. He also has above-average grades in hard-hit and ground-ball rate.
These offenses have been some of the most productive in baseball over the season’s second half. The Cubs are second in runs scored and OPS (.805), pacing the MLB in ISO (.193) over this span. They’re clobbering the baseball and slashing .266/.346/.459, maintaining a double-digit BB% as well while leading the sport in wRC+. Against right-handers, they slash .243/.333/.414 on the year with a .747 OPS.
The Diamondbacks have been quite good at getting runners across the plate, too. They’re fourth in total runs scored since the break, also ranking fourth in OPS (.780). Their ISO this year is low, but has ticked upwards and sits at a nice .174 over the second half, and the 17.9% K% is the second-best mark in baseball, too. They’re fourth in wRC+ over this same sample, though on the year, they slash just .231/.306/.379 for an OPS of .685 against right-handed pitching.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cubs as a -108 Moneyline favorite as the visitors this evening, with the Diamondbacks in play as a +101 home underdog. The total is set at eight combined runs.
Prior to his last outing, Pfaadt was actually playing some stellar baseball. Since the start of July, he’s allowed zero earned runs in five of his nine starts with two earned runs in another three of those. In fact, the five earned runs he dished out in his most recent game against the MLB’s current hottest offense – the Boston Red Sox – were the most he’d allowed since April 25 when he conceded three. Granted, many of those outings further back weren’t starts, instead coming out of the bullpen.
He gets a real test tonight against one of the best lineups in the sport, but after blanking the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in three straight appearances prior to his last, perhaps Pfaadt can hold up tonight. The Cubs have also gotten some good results from Holmes since his debut for the club back on August 8, allowing four earned runs in his first start before zero and one in his next two. His strikeout stuff isn’t great, but he’s otherwise been very good this season.
For that reason, I’d prefer to take under 4.5 runs through the first five innings of this game. Both starting arms are in good form, so even against hot lineups, I like this to be something of a pitcher’s duel in the early going.
