Following a series win over the AL-best Tampa Bay Rays, the Baltimore Orioles are likely feeling energized headed into today’s matchup. They’re on the road now in St. Louis for a battle of the birds against the Cardinals, setting up a showdown between clubs on the outside looking in at the Wild Card picture. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Orioles vs. Cardinals game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Judging from a 63-68 record and a -35 run differential, one might believe the Orioles’ season is a lost effort. That’s not quite true, since they’re somehow just 2.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot; at 17-17 since the break, the numbers could be far worse. They’ve been performing better than the Cardinals, who have dropped 21 of their 37 games since the All-Star break and have slipped to 66-66 on the year with a -2 run differential. After losing three straight outings, they’ll need to get back on the board at five games out of the Wild Card in the NL.
The starter for Baltimore here is RHP Chris Bassitt (4-4). He’s thrown just 67.1 innings this year with an elevated 5.08 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. He’s also struck out only 46 hitters, good for a miserable 14.9% K%. His BB% is 8.4% with better-than-average exit velocity and hard-hit rates, plus a 92nd-percentile barrel rate. Still, those marks haven’t helped the 37-year-old much.
For St. Louis, it’s LHP Matthew Liberatore (5-11) tonight. He brings a 5.04 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and 125 strikeouts over his 125.0 IP. His K% is 23.1% with an 8.1% BB%. However, the remainder of his Sabermetrics are all below average for the most part, posting 30th-percentile grades or worse in average exit velo and barrel rate as well as ground-ball rate.
In the second half of the campaign since the break, neither of these offenses have been stellar. The Orioles are 23rd in scoring and 21st in OPS at .688, slashing .221/.306/.382. A 25.3% K% is among the sport’s highest, but a .161 ISO is quite good and the club sits ninth in homers. They slash .234/.309/.397 for an OPS of .706 against lefties on the full season.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 11th in runs scored despite a .676 OPS that falls 25th, a .122 ISO and the third-fewest homers among all clubs. The 20.8% K% is nice, and a .240/.314/.362 slash line isn’t bad until you get to the slugging percentage. For what it’s worth, though, they’re 23rd in wRC+ over this sample. On the full year, the Redbirds slash .242/.314/.378 with a .693 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Orioles vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cardinals as a -124 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, with the Orioles in play as a +116 underdog on the road. The total is set at eight combined runs.
This feels like a great spot to take both teams to score 2+ runs in the first five innings. The market offers this line at +155 value, and given that we get a pair of starters with ERAs above 5.00, I’m very comfortable taking this one. Bassitt has been rough this year and has allowed 13 hits and four walks over 11.0 innings across two starts this month since making his return, giving up five earned runs in that span. Liberatore has allowed at least two earned runs in three of his four August starts as well as three or more earned runs in nine of his 13 outings since the start of June. Neither one is a particularly consistent arm at this point, so I’m happy to take some offense while they’re in the game.
