It’s hard to say who this game is more important for.
On the one hand, after losing eight of their past nine games, the Tigers need a win to keep their very small chance at a playoff berth alive. On the other, the Rays are suddenly in danger of losing their lead in the AL East, as they’ve dropped three series in a row to divisional rivals. Needless to say, this isn’t exactly the high point in the season for either of these franchises.
Which club will bounce back on Monday night in Detroit? Let’s dive into this American League tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Framber Valdez is making $27.5 million this year. In 2027, he’s set to make $47.5 million. If ever there was a time that the Tigers needed their highest-paid player to step-up, it would be tonight, in an effort to end the club’s five-game losing streak. Whether or not I believe Valdez can do such a thing is another matter. It’s not that the left-hander has been awful in 2026, it’s just easily been the worst full-season of Valdez’s professional life. Across 25 starts and 138.2 innings, Valdez owns a 4.35 ERA and a 4.47 xERA. His 18.1% strikeout rate is a career-low, while a 12th percentile opponent hard hit rate (43.7%) is only amplifying the fact that Valdez can no longer consistently generate whiffs. Dating back to June 27 — ironically, an outing against the Astros — Valdez sports a 5.14 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Spin it any way you want. Things have been bleak.
On the complete opposite end of the pitching spectrum, we find Drew Rasmussen. Yes, the right-hander is on the heels of an oddly underwhelming start against the lowly Blue Jays offense, but for the season as a whole, Rasmussen possesses a 3.01 ERA and a 3.00 FIP over 134.1 innings of work. Need a larger sample? How about the 579.2 innings Rasmussen has thrown since the beginning of 2021? It’s a span where the 31-year-old has maintained a 2.84 ERA, which is the fourth-lowest mark of any arm with at least 500 innings under their belt. It’s bested by only Shohei Ohtani, Chris Sale and Brandon Woodruff — not terrible company at all. With Tampa needing a win to keep distance between itself and the Yankees in the standings, there’s no one Kevin Cash would rather give the ball to.
It’s a pretty good time to face Detroit, too. The lineup has not been producing at all over the past two weeks. The Tigers have mustered just a .219 average and a .295 wOBA over the past 14 days, a stretch where the team’s 87 wRC+ ranks 21st in MLB. This is a roster that is really missing Riley Greene (hamstring) at the moment, and it hasn’t helped matters that the outfielder’s injury has coincided with Dillon Dingler’s first real slump of 2026. In the backstop’s past 61 plate appearances, he’s slashing .071/.148/.107 with a -29 wRC+. You read that right. It wasn’t a misprint.
Rays vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rays ML (-124)
The Rays have the pitching advantage with Drew Rasmussen, while Tampa’s lineup has also been significantly better over the past two weeks. Add in the fact that the Tigers have lost eight of their past nine, and the Rays are an easy pick on the moneyline.
Strong Lean: Junior Caminero 2+ Total Bases (+107)
Caminero has been a monster against left-handed pitching in 2026, with a .396 wOBA and a 156 wRC+ within the split. Overall, the third baseman also sports the league’s 11th-highest ISO (.256), so there’s a decent chance it’ll only take him one hit to reach this prop.
