Cincinnati reaches Oracle Park at 62-69 after losing seven of its last 10 games. The Reds scored 40 runs and allowed 58 during that stretch. San Francisco stands 52-78 following a 1-5 road trip through Cleveland and Boston. The Giants have lost three straight and eight of 10, with a 31-48 scoring margin. They also traveled across three time zones after Sunday’s game. Bryce Eldridge entered the bereavement list after batting .303 with two homers across nine games. Willy Adames and Victor Bericoto also left Sunday with injuries. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Reds prediction, preview
Chase Burns supplies Cincinnati with the largest starting-pitcher advantage on this board. He owns a 14-2 record, 2.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 159 strikeouts across 136 innings. Burns has recorded a 2.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 35-to-9 strikeout-to-walk line across five starts. Miami and St. Louis scored two runs across his last 12 innings. His 97.7 mph four-seamer carries 56.5% usage, while his 90.2 mph slider appears 38.3%. That slider generates a devastating 51.7% whiff rate. Burns has allowed 88.9 mph exit velocity, 38.0% hard hits, and 8.2% barrels. Right-handed hitters own a .185/.226/.265 line against him, with two homers across 199 batters faced.
Carson Whisenhunt owns a 7.03 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 23 strikeouts, and 20 walks across 32 innings. His latest five starts produced an 8.86 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 17 strikeouts, and 14 walks. Opponents scored 21 runs across 21 1/3 innings during that span. Cleveland produced six runs, nine hits, and four innings against him Tuesday. Whisenhunt’s changeup generates 40.5% whiffs, but his 92.7 mph four-seamer produces only 11.8%. Right-handed hitters have battered him for a .330/.390/.557 line. His recent contact allowed has reached 97.0 mph, 60.0% hard hits, and 10.0% barrels. Cincinnati should construct a heavily right-handed lineup around Elly De La Cruz.
The Reds have batted only .221/.297/.360 with 11 homers across their latest 11 games. Their season performance against left-handers remains considerably better at .240/.328/.410. De La Cruz owns a .262/.343/.474 line with 21 homers, 58 RBIs, and 76 runs. His contact has averaged 93.9 mph, producing 52.6% hard hits and 14.5% barrels. Sal Stewart has supplied 27 homers, 98 RBIs, and an .808 OPS. Matt McLain enters with three homers, seven RBIs, and seven runs across 10 games. JJ Bleday owns 10 hits and a .796 OPS during that span. Whisenhunt’s walks should give Cincinnati repeated opportunities with multiple runners aboard.
Reds vs. Giants pick, best bet
San Francisco’s countercase begins with its remaining left-handed contact. Luis Arraez leads the lineup with a .324 average, .360 OBP, and 52 runs. Rafael Devers owns 26 homers, 70 RBIs, and a .468 slugging percentage. His recent contact has averaged 92.0 mph with a 40.7% hard-hit rate. However, the Giants have batted .232/.294/.374 with 83 strikeouts across nine games. Their bullpen owns a 4.31 season ERA and a recent 1.41 WHIP. Cincinnati’s bullpen creates greater concern with a 4.52 ERA and 1.71 recent WHIP. Reds relievers issued 26 walks across their latest 35 2/3 innings. Oracle Park’s projected 62-degree evening favors Burns and reduces San Francisco’s comeback power.
Cincinnati’s moneyline has moved beyond an acceptable straight-bet price. The run line makes better use of an enormous starting advantage. Burns averages fewer than six innings, leaving Cincinnati’s bullpen exposed during the final third. However, Whisenhunt has averaged only 4.2 innings and rarely reaches 90 pitches. Cincinnati should attack his fastball before reaching a vulnerable San Francisco middle-relief group. The under carries appeal, although Whisenhunt and both bullpens create too many crooked-inning paths.
Best bet: Reds -1.5 (+110), playable to +100
Projected score: Reds 5, Giants 2
Best bet: Reds -1.5 (+110) at Giants
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