Pittsburgh reaches Petco Park at 63-69 after Los Angeles completed a three-game sweep Sunday. The Pirates scored seven runs during that series and managed two hits during the finale. They remain 5-5 across 10 games, with 49 runs scored and 37 allowed. San Diego stands 71-60 after sweeping Minnesota and winning 21 of 28 games. The Padres are 7-3 during their latest stretch, producing a 46-30 scoring margin. Pittsburgh begins another difficult series with Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler scheduled behind Braxton Ashcraft. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Padres vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Ashcraft owns a 3.68 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 strikeouts, and 33 walks across 149 1/3 innings. His latest five starts produced a 2.73 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 29 strikeouts, and five walks. He completed 17 innings across his last two appearances, allowing two runs, eight hits, and one walk. Ashcraft throws a 97.2 mph four-seamer, 84.9 mph curveball, 91.7 mph slider, sinker, and splitter. The curveball generates 39.3% whiffs, while the slider produces 29.9%. Opponents have generated 89.4 mph exit velocity, 41.6% hard hits, and only 6.7% barrels. Robbie Ray counters with a 3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 117 strikeouts across 137 2/3 innings. Ray has posted a 2.67 ERA across five starts, although 14 walks have created unnecessary traffic.
Pittsburgh has batted .214/.287/.338 with seven homers and 88 strikeouts across nine games. Its season line against left-handers sits at .240/.308/.373, accompanied by a 25.9% strikeout rate. Ray’s slider produces 33.5% whiffs, while his knuckle curve reaches 37.3%. Brandon Lowe supplies Pittsburgh’s strongest recent answer with 10 hits, two homers, six RBIs, and a .930 OPS. His recent contact has produced 92.2 mph exit velocity and 57.1% hard hits. Bryan Reynolds owns nine hits and seven runs during the same stretch, with an improved 14.8% barrel rate. Oneil Cruz has homered twice and driven in seven runs since returning from a 58-game absence. However, Pittsburgh’s left-handed power remains vulnerable against Ray’s breaking-ball foundation.
San Diego has batted .255/.352/.438 with 14 homers and 40 walks across nine games. Fernando Tatis Jr. has erupted for 15 hits, five homers, 12 RBIs, eight runs, and a 1.352 OPS. His recent batted balls have averaged 99.3 mph, producing 66.7% hard hits and 24.2% barrels. Luis Rengifo has added nine hits, one homer, and four RBIs, while Jake Cronenworth owns 10 hits and six runs. Ty France carries an .862 season OPS with 18 homers and 56 RBIs. Ashcraft has limited right-handed hitters to a .215 average, .246 OBP, and .331 slugging percentage. Left-handers have reached a .740 OPS against him, giving Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets San Diego’s clearest path. Ashcraft’s curveball must stay beneath those swings.
Pirates vs. Padres pick, best bet
The bullpen comparison favors San Diego, although both groups have pitched well recently. Padres relievers own a 3.25 season ERA and rank second across MLB. They have posted a 2.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.68 K/9, and 0.29 HR/9 across nine games. Their last 11 1/3 innings produced one run, one walk, and no homers. Mason Miller owns a 0.83 ERA and a remarkable 48.3% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh’s bullpen carries a 4.16 season ERA but has recorded a 3.70 mark across nine games. Those relievers generated 10.67 K/9 and allowed one homer across 41 1/3 innings. Petco Park’s evening marine air should further reduce carry after sunset.
The under receives support from two starters producing better recent results than their season baselines. Pittsburgh’s left-handed core encounters Ray’s best pitches, while Ashcraft owns an excellent matchup against San Diego’s right-handed stars. The Padres’ recent offensive form prevents a Pittsburgh moneyline recommendation. San Diego’s bullpen advantage also discourages taking the underdog despite Ashcraft’s superior command. Seven remains the likeliest decision point, with five or six runs carrying considerable probability.
Best bet: Under 7.5 runs (-115), playable to -120
Projected score: Padres 4, Pirates 2
Best bet: Padres vs. Pirates u7.5 total runs (-115)
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