Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s action on the diamond: Munetaka Murakami, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ryan Jeffers.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | +338 | Murakami enters tonight’s contest ranking in the 100th percentile of the league in both barrel rate (20.2%) and hard hit rate (58.6%). That’s led directly to 29 home runs and a massive .506 expected wOBA on batted ball events. Meanhwhile, Kumar Rocker has surrendered 1.52 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | +343 | Across 129.0 innings this season, Merrill Kelly manages to combine a first percentile xERA (7.23) with a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.6%). The soon-to-be 38-year-old is washed. There’s no doubt that PCA is option No. 1 for Cubs’ bats on Monday. Crow-Armstrong has a league-high 12 long balls since the All-Star Game. He’s gunning for that NL MVP trophy. |
| Ryan Jeffers | +401 | No American League pitcher has given up more home runs than Jeffrey Springs (29). Much of the blame can be centered around the A’s temporary home in Sacramento, which is simply a hitter’s paradise. Springs is conceding an eye-popping 2.62 opponent home runs per nine at Sutter Health Park. As for Jeffers, he’s slashing .308/.449/.474 with a 164 wRC+ against LHPs. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Run (+338)
Murakami has come to North America exactly as advertised. The former NPB star doesn’t make a lot of contact, but when he does, it goes a really, really long way. To wit, Murakami enters tonight’s contest ranking in the 100th percentile of the league in both barrel rate (20.2%) and hard hit rate (58.6%). That’s led directly to 29 home runs and a massive .506 expected wOBA on batted ball events. Murakami and the rest of the White Sox did struggle in a matchup with Kumar Rocker back in late July, but I have faith things will go differently the second time around. Rocker isn’t a “strikeout artist” by any means, and he’s had his issues with LHBs so far in 2026. In fact, Rocker has surrendered 1.52 long balls per nine within the split.
Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Home Run (+343)
Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse with Merrill Kelly, the veteran RHP comes into tonight’s start rocking an 8.24 ERA in the month of August. It’s not ideal — unless you’re looking to back a couple Cubs bats in the home run market. Across 129.0 innings this season, Kelly manages to combine a first percentile xERA (7.23) with a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.6%). The soon-to-be 38-year-old is washed. There’s no way around it. Kelly’s also been particularly poor against lefties, surrendering 2.15 home runs per nine within the split. As such, Michael Busch (+542) and Ian Happ (+545) are names to consider on Monday, yet there’s no doubt that PCA is option No. 1. Crow-Armstrong has a league-high 12 long balls since the All-Star Game. He’s gunning for that NL MVP trophy.
Ryan Jeffers 1+ Home Run (+401)
No American League pitcher has given up more home runs than Jeffrey Springs (29), despite the fact that the Athletics’ lefty has been limited to only 113.2 innings in 2026. While some of the problem is Springs’ extreme fly ball nature — he’s registered a microscopic eighth percentile ground ball rate (33.2%) — a lot of the blame can be centered around the A’s temporary home in Sacramento. Sutter Health Park is simply a hitter’s paradise, and Springs is conceding an eye-popping 2.62 opponent home runs per nine in its confines. The Twins will travel to California for this mid-week series, and I expect the club to take advantage of its surroundings. On Monday, Ryan Jeffers is the man to focus on. In 98 plate appearances versus LHPs, Jeffers is slashing .308/.449/.474 with a 164 wRC+.
