For most teams in the NFL, the preseason is time for optimism. Most teams can look at their rosters, look at their upcoming schedules, and at least find reason for optimism. In basically every season since the 2002 division re-alignment, at least one team has gone from worst to first, so quick turnarounds in the NFL are possible.
The Miami Dolphins might be an exception. Miami moved on from head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the offseason, traded wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and released Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins are building around running back De’Von Achane and newly-signed quarterback Malik Willis, but progress should be slow.
As a result, their over-under win total is set to just 3.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, tied for the lowest in football.
Dolphins win total pick for NFL regular season
If there’s one reason for optimism in Miami, it’s that the AFC East contains fellow fodder in the New York Jets, who also project to be among the worst teams in the NFL. Two games against the Jets could easily result in at least one win, although Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson arguably comprise a better RB-WR duo than Achane and Malik Washington and Geno Smith is a known quantity while Willis is not.
It’s difficult to see what other opportunities the Dolphins have, though. Based on their opponents’ 2025 winning percentage, Miami has the second-hardest schedule in the league. In addition to the three other members of their own division, the Dolphins will face the NFC North, which had all four teams finish above .500, and the AFC West, which sent two teams to the playoffs, not including the Kansas City Chiefs. The standalone third-place teams they’ll play to round out their schedule (the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, and San Francisco 49ers) were largely decimated by injuries last season and should be better in 2026.
The timing of its games won’t do Miami any favors. In theory, a road game against the Las Vegas Raiders, who finished with football’s worst record last season, could be a pickup opportunity, but they’ll likely face steady veteran Kirk Cousins in Week 1 instead of a jittery Fernando Mendoza making his professional debut. The Dolphins will face San Francisco in Week 2, before injuries kick in. Four of their first six games are on the road, with the bye week sandwiched in Week 6, so opponents should be able to avoid the worst of Miami’s notoriously challenging heat. The Dolphins will also have to face the Denver Broncos and the Green Bay Packers on the road in December, where weather could be a significant factor.
In theory, Willis provides a reason for optimism, as he went 70-for-89 (78.7%) with six touchdowns and zero interceptions across 11 appearances (three starts) as Jordan Love’s backup with the Packers across the last two seasons, adding a further 261 yards and three touchdowns with his legs. Several of the teams Miami will face somewhat struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks, as the Chicago Bears and the Buffalo Bills both ranked in the bottom five by rushing yards allowed to the position. Given that the Dolphins ranked 29th in pass blocking grades and 27th in run blocking grades last season and only added rookie Kadyn Proctor, Willis is unlikely to have much protection.
The Dolphins also ranked dead last by PFF’s pass rushing grades, registering quarterback knockdowns at the sixth-lowest rate, and signing former fourth overall pick Clelin Ferrell, a notable draft bust, likely won’t help too much with that. They’ll have to face five of the top 10 quarterbacks by PFF grade while under pressure, plus Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow, who would’ve ranked in the top 10 had they played enough snaps to qualify.
There’s a scenario in which Willis carries over his production into a starting role, Jeff Hafley succeeds in his first stint as head coach, Achane is at his absolute dual-threat best, and the defense does just enough. However, even since the schedule expanded to 17 games in 2021, there have been multiple teams with three or fewer wins in four of five seasons. At +120, it’s worth banking on Miami to be one of those teams this season.
