The Bills’ season ended in Denver in 2025, losing in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to the Broncos. They were 12-5 in the regular season, and even though that sounds like a decent season for most teams, it’s not in Buffalo. With a quarterback like Josh Allen, the expectation is for this team to make the Super Bowl, and once again they fell short of that goal. That resulted in a change at head coach heading into 2026, as former offensive coordinator Joe Brady takes over this team. Let’s see if that move is enough to get this team over the hump. With that being said, the regular season comes first. How will Buffalo fare before the playoffs in 2026?
Below is my pick and prediction for Buffalo’s 2026-27 regular season, including a win total bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bills win total pick for NFL regular season
I’m quite shocked that Buffalo’s win total is this low. This is a team that has won at least 11 games in each of the last six seasons. When Josh Allen is under center, it feels impossible that the Bills won’t have a good regular season. As long as that man is healthy, Buffalo can win any game, in any stadium.
Looking at the schedule for 2026, it is a tough one. Buffalo does have four games against division rivals (Jets and Dolphins) which should be wins, so we need to find seven more in there. I’m giving them wins against Houston, Las Vegas, New England (once), Minnesota, L.A. Chargers, Baltimore and Green Bay. Those are the 11 wins, with losses to Detroit, New England (once), L.A. Rams, Kansas City, Chicago and Denver.
In a normal year, I would expect Buffalo to win more games, but this schedule is brutal. It’s the eighth toughest in terms of strength of schedule. They face the entire NFC North, one of the best divisions in football. Both L.A. teams are tough. They play the Patriots twice, who just went to the Super Bowl. They play the Chiefs, who are coming off a down year and should be back to their best and then they play the Texans, Ravens and Broncos, who were all playoff teams a season ago. To be quite frank, it’s one of the toughest schedules I’ve ever seen. Aside from the four games against Miami and New York along with the game against the Raiders, I don’t see any other gimmes on there. Maybe you could include the Vikings in that category.
All of that being said, Josh Allen is Josh Allen, and the Bills are the Bills. They are arguably the best team in the NFL, and despite a brutal schedule, I can see them winning the AFC East with at least 11 wins. This schedule will certainly get them battle-tested for what’s to come in the postseason.
