10 games of action are on today’s Monday MLB slate. With first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, the Boston Red Sox will open a series against the Miami Marlins. This is the first matchup between these two sides all season.
Looking at the odds, the Red Sox enter as narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline and hold +134 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Marlins hold +112 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at seven runs.
Red Sox at Marlins prediction, preview
It has been a roller coaster of a season for the Boston Red Sox. They kicked off the season in free fall, getting off to a 9-17 start to the year, which led to Alex Cora being fired. Boston then completely turned things around to look like the hottest team in baseball, including posting a 15-game winning streak to climb back into MLB relevancy. They enter today’s matchup with a 71-59 record on the season, and will be looking to carry the momentum of the previous series sweep over the Giants. Overall, the Red Sox have gone 63-67 to the run line, and the run total is 61-65-4 to the over/under.
Ranger Suarez will take the ball for the Red Sox tonight, marking his 23rd start of the season. The prized free agency acquisition enters with a 5-3 record, a 3.41 ERA, a 1.182 WHIP, seven home runs allowed, and 113 strikeouts tallied across his 113.1 innings pitched. The two-time All-Star has had high levels of success against this Marlins team, dating back to his tenure with the Philadelphia Phillies. Suarez has faced off with this Marlins’ lineup in 21 at-bats in his career, recording seven strikeouts and allowing just one hit in these opportunities with overall slash lines of .048/.091/.0148 with a putrid .139 OPS.
At the plate, the Red Sox are slashing a collective .251/.324/.407 with a .731 OPS. Boston ranks eighth in the MLB in hits, 13th in runs, 24th in home runs, and 22nd in strikeouts. Ceddanne Rafaela leads the team with 143 hits on the season, along with 16 home runs and 66 RBI. Wilyer Abreu adds 124 hits of his own, 22 home runs, and 69 RBI, while Willson Contreras posts a team-leading 26 home runs and 78 RBI. Caleb Durbin is the lone other player to have eclipsed 100+ hits, while Jarren Duran and Connor Wong also play notable roles.
The Miami Marlins enter with a 67-64 record on the season. They sit in third place in the National League East, 9.0 games back from the top spot, and are 4.0 games back from the final Wild Card seed. Miami enters this matchup coming off a sweep over the Washington Nationals and will look to carry this momentum. On the season overall, the Marlins have gone 66-65 to the run line, and the run total is 63-64-4 to the over/under.
Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins tonight, marking his MLB-leading 28th start of the season. The former CY Young winner enters with a 13-8 record, a 3.46 ERA, a 1.177 WHIP, 18 home runs allowed, and 131 strikeouts tallied across an MLB-leading 176.2 innings pitched. Alcantara has faced off with this Red Sox lineup in 29 at-bats in his career, limiting them to six hits and recording nine strikeouts, along with collective slash lines of .207/.258/.345 with a .603 OPS.
The Marlins are slashing a collective .249/.326/.402 with a .728 OPS. They rank 14th in the league in hits, 19th in total runs, 24th in home runs, and 18th in strikeouts. Otto Lopez leads the MLB with 155 hits this season, along with a .306 batting average and 58 RBI. Xavier Edwards has tallied 136 hits and 49 RBI, while Heriberto Hernandez leads the team with 19 home runs and 53 RBI, while Owen Caissie, Griffin Conine, and Joe Mack also play notable roles.
Red Sox at Marlins pick, best bet
Both of these teams are playing high quality baseball of late and leaning on pitchers they should be able to trust. The Marlins have more ground to make up in their postseason outlook, while the Red Sox hold a 6.5-game cushion over the final Wild Card seed. But both these teams are looking to build off their encouraging stretch and finish the season strong.
My lean is toward the Red Sox getting the outright victory and extending their three-game winning streak. But I am backing the game total to remain under the seven run line as my best bet.
Ranger Suarez has had some ups-and-downs this season, but this is a matchup that he has shined in across his career. Even with the 29 at-bat sample size being a key caveat, limiting Miami to collective slash lines of .048/.091/.0148 with a .139 OPS is extremely impressive stuff. In his start last year with the Phillies against the Marlins, Suarez went seven innings, allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out eight, in what resulted in a 4-2 victory.
But Sandy Alcantara has also impressed in this matchup and has been in good form of late. He has left without allowing an earned run in three of his past five starts and is posting a 2.48 ERA across his past 14 outings. Alcantara also does an excellent job pitching late into games, going 6.0 innings or greater in nine straight starts and through the seventh inning in six of these.
Neither of these lineups is very home run dependent, and both teams will be content scrapping for runs through more of a small-ball approach. Expect both All-Star quality pitchers to make their best effort in putting their team in the position to win and for the seven run total to be too lofty. When these pitchers are eventually chased from the matchups, the Red Sox bullpen is posting an MLB-best 2.90 collective ERA, while the Marlins’ bullpen ranks 12th in this category. Buckle up for a pitchers’ duel and expect both teams to struggle to score in what should be a competitive battle throughout.
Best bet: Game Total Under 7 (-101)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
