Chicago enters Chase Field at 75-56 after Sunday’s extraordinary 19-2 victory in Seattle. The Cubs collected 17 hits, four homers, two grand slams, and nine eighth-inning runs. That victory ended a three-game losing streak and completed a 4-6 stretch. Chicago still scored 50 runs during those 10 games, reflecting considerable offensive volatility. Arizona stands 69-62 after completing its 39th comeback victory Sunday. The Diamondbacks are 5-5 across 10 games, with 50 runs scored and 54 allowed. Arizona remains involved in a crowded National League wild-card race. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Kevin Gausman owns a 4.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 143 strikeouts, and 40 walks across 143 1/3 innings. His latest five starts produced a 4.88 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 26 strikeouts, and six walks. Washington and the White Sox scored nine runs across his last nine innings. Gausman throws his 94.0 mph four-seamer 50.9% and his splitter 38.5%. The splitter generates 41.1% whiffs, but his fastball remains vulnerable when elevated poorly. Right-handed hitters have slugged .447 against him, compared with .373 for left-handers. Merrill Kelly owns a 5.37 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 84 strikeouts, 57 walks, and 26 homers. His five-start ERA sits at 6.39, with a 1.70 WHIP and 16 walks across 25 1/3 innings.
Kelly’s recent shape presents an excellent matchup for Chicago’s lineup. Colorado and Boston scored 12 runs across his last nine innings. Kelly permitted 13 hits, seven walks, three homers, and only four strikeouts during those starts. His four-seamer generates 12.9% whiffs, while his cutter reaches only 12.7%. Opponents have produced 89.8 mph exit velocity, 44.3% hard hits, and 12.8% barrels against him. Left-handed hitters own a .283/.371/.532 line with 18 homers. Chicago has batted .259/.343/.489 with 19 homers across nine games. The Cubs also own a .333 OBP and .412 slugging percentage against right-handers.
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads that offense with a .281/.379/.559 line, 33 homers, 83 RBIs, and 93 runs. He has produced six homers, 10 RBIs, seven runs, and a 1.168 OPS across nine games. His recent contact carries 90.0 mph exit velocity, 50.0% hard hits, and 13.3% barrels. Alex Bregman owns 10 recent hits, three homers, eight RBIs, and a .937 OPS. Seiya Suzuki has reached base at a .381 clip during the same period. Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto supply additional left-handed power against Kelly. Sunday’s 19-run eruption included meaningful production throughout Chicago’s order, rather than one isolated hot hitter.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Arizona’s offense provides an equally convincing counterargument against Gausman. Corbin Carroll has batted .387/.500/.645 with 12 hits and six runs across nine games. His recent contact has produced 93.4 mph exit velocity and 51.9% hard hits. Gabriel Moreno owns 11 hits, two homers, 11 RBIs, and a .990 OPS during that span. His batted balls have generated 92.7 mph exit velocity, 57.1% hard hits, and 21.4% barrels. Tim Tawa has added a .343 average, two homers, and six RBIs. Arizona has batted .271/.344/.464 with 11 homers across nine games. Gausman’s excellent splitter can miss bats, but Arizona owns baseball’s seventh-lowest season strikeout total.
Chicago’s bullpen has posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across nine games. Aaron Civale covered four scoreless innings Sunday, preserving several important late-inning arms. Daniel Palencia and Hoby Milner remain unavailable, which reduces Craig Counsell’s preferred leverage depth. Arizona relievers own a 4.13 season ERA and a 4.54 recent mark. They have allowed eight homers across 35 2/3 innings during that stretch. Six Diamondbacks relievers combined for six scoreless innings Sunday, creating immediate workload concerns. Chase Field’s closed roof removes the 110-degree heat, although the controlled environment still supports consistent carry. Both starters offer several independent scoring paths.
Best bet: Over 9 runs (-112), playable to -120
Projected score: Cubs 7, Diamondbacks 5
Best bet: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs o9.0 total runs (-110)
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