Over the last 11 seasons, only two teams have won the AFC West – The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. But it’s been a Chiefs sandwich with the Broncos as bread. Denver won it in 2015 and 2025. That Patrick Mahomes guy is pretty, pretty good. Interestingly, the Las Vegas Raiders have been the cellar dweller only three times over that span, although two of those came in the two most recent seasons. The Broncos have been in the basement four times with the Los Angeles Chargers accomplishing the feat four times as well. Heading into this season, there are three legitimate teams that have a chance to win this division. The Raiders are building something but are a few years from being serious contenders.
Here’s how things look on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Kansas City Chiefs
Since Andy Reid became the head coach of the Chiefs in 2013, Kansas City had a losing record for the first time last season, won double-digit games in all but two seasons, missed the playoffs only twice and won the Super Bowl three times. That is quite the run. More impressively, five of those campaigns were with Alex Smith under center.
Last season’s six-win season was primarily due to Patrick Mahomes playing only 14 games and one-score game variance. Nine of the 11 losses were within one score. Mahomes suffered a knee injury, but is expected to start Week 1. Whheeeeeeeeewww. Now, after his magical 2022 in which he threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, defenses have adjusted and the touchdown totals have been 27, 26 and 22. Defenses are taking away the deep ball and forcing Mahomes to matriculate down the field. Last season, Mahomes rushed 64 times for 422 yards, five touchdowns and 27 first downs. Coming off knee surgery, all those numbers will likely plummet.
As a result, Kansas City went out and paid for Kenneth Walker III to the tune of $43.05 million over three years. The offensive line is ranked eighth by PFF, so a ground-and-pound offense will be likely. I do wonder if defenses stack the box early on to see if Mahomes can beat them over the top.
The defense finished 12th in both EPA per dropback and carry. The 4.0 yards per rush allowed were tied for the third-fewest. The pressure rate was 13th-best and the blitz rate was third-highest, but the 35 sacks were tied for the fifth-fewest and the 14 turnovers were tied for the fourth-fewest.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers received a bolt of lightning by adding the mad scientist, Mike McDaniel, to guide the offense. At the peak of his tenure in Miami, the Dolphins ranked fifth in points and second in yards. McDaniel utilizes pre-snap motion, spreads defenses out and attacks seams at every layer. With the talent in Los Angeles, one must squint to see the ceiling. That said, this is the first year and there could be growing pains.
Justin Herbert is a huge upgrade over Tua Tagovailoa, as he has a stronger arm and isn’t afraid to push the ball down the field. The Chargers boast the seventh-best offensive line per PFF and the unit is especially adept in pass protection. Herbert was sacked the second-most often last season, but that number should dramatically decline, especially since Herbert likely won’t have to hold onto the ball long due to McDaniel scheming players open.
Quentin Johnston, Tre’ Harris and Ladd McConkey provide a formidable triumvirate of pass catchers. Omarion Hampton should feast out of the backfield while Keaton Mitchell is one of the most explosive gamebreakers in the NFL. It wouldn’t surprise me if this is one of the best offenses in the league.
Defensively, Los Angeles was 11th in EPA per dropback and second in EPA per carry. The 23 total turnovers were seventh-most while the 45 sacks were tied for the seventh-most. The Chargers were 13th in pressure rate while blitzing at the sixth-lowest rate. It will be interesting to see if that remains the status quo because Chris O’Leary is now the coordinator and is known to be aggressive and blitz often.
If the Chargers offense is as potent as advertised, and the defense does get more aggressive, there could be a plethora of sacks and turnovers.
Denver Broncos
This is now year four of the Sean Payton Denver era. Since arriving in 2023, the win totals have gone from eight to 10 to 14 last season. This could be the year.
Quarterback Bo Nix will now be in his third year and the team went out and acquired Jaylen Waddle, a bona fide alpha at receiver. Nix attempted a league-high 612 passes last season and Payton obviously trusts him. The interception rate declined from 2.1% to 1.8% last season and he took only 22 sacks. The EPA per dropback was 10th-best while the EPA per carry was 18th. The offensive line is ranked as the best unit per PFF heading into the season.
Defensively, Denver had one of the best units in the league. The EPA per dropback was fifth-lowest while the EPA per carry was seventh-lowest. The 1,548 rushing yards were the second-fewest while the 11 rushing touchdowns were the fourth-fewest. The 18 passing touchdowns were the fourth-fewest. The pressure rate was second-best and the 68 sacks led the league by a significant margin. The only blemish is the unit only racked up 14 turnovers, the fourth-fewest.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are slowly building something. Tight end Brock Bowers is one of the best in the NFL and was drafted in the first round of the 2024 draft. Last year, running back Ashton Jeanty was selected. Now the Raiders have their franchise quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, so Las Vegas has their Big Three on offense. Kirk Cousins will likely start the season at quarterback, though, with Mendoza likely entering the fray later. The offensive line was bolstered in the offseason, but the unit still ranks only 18th. The wide receiver group may be one of the worst in the NFL.
Defensively, the unit should be improved with the acquisitions of linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker. Maxx Crosby is still on the team and his motor runs 24/7. There’s a new coordinator in Rob Leonard and he looks to improve a defense that was 17th in EPA per carry and 24th in EPA per dropback. The unit only racked up 16 turnovers and 37 sacks. The pressure rate was sixth-worst while the 22 rushing touchdowns allowed were the second-most.
Conclusion
I really like Denver to win the division. The Broncos are the most complete team and stout in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in the league and an offensive savant. A third-year Nix breakout wouldn’t surprise. The defense is one of the best and most ferocious in the league. The Chiefs have a huge health question with Patrick Mahomes while the Chargers will be in year one of learning a new offense. Sure, the upside is there, but I’ll take the continuity and the third-lowest odds. Denver +225.
