Opening Sunday’s 11-game MLB slate, the St. Louis Cardinals will close out their series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies will look to complete the sweep and extend their winning streak to nine games in this matchup, while the Cardinals are fighting to get back in the win column and make up ground in the Wild Card race. Kyle Leahy and Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for their respective squads in this afternoon’s matchup.
Looking at the odds for the Sunday afternoon matchup, the Phillies enter as -216 favorites and hold -105 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals hold +200 odds to win outright, with the run total set at eight.
Cardinals at Phillies prediction, preview
The St. Louis Cardinals enter the Sunday matinee with a 66-65 record on the season (following Saturday night’s loss). They are 7-5 across their past 12 games, and still attempting to fight their way into the postseason. Currently, St. Louis is 15.5 games back of the Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central, but just 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card slot. On the season, they have gone 71-60 to the run line, and the run total is 54-70-7 to the over/under.
Kyle Leahy will take the ball for the Cardinals as they attempt to avoid the sweep. This will be his 25th start of the season, and the 29-year-old enters with a 10-4 record, a 3.24 ERA, a 1.308 WHIP, 12 home runs allowed, and 111 strikeouts tallied across his 122.1 innings pitched. He has only gotten stronger as the season has progressed, as Leahy has tallied a 1.38 ERA across his past 10 starts. He has faced off with this Phillies lineup in 34 at-bats in his career, with nine hits allowed and nine strikeouts tallied across these opportunities.
At the plate, the Cardinals are slashing a collective .241/.317/.382 with a .699 OPS. St. Louis is tied for 17th in the league in hits, ranks 16th in runs, 21st in home runs, and has limited strikeouts at the fourth-best rate. Jordan Walker headlines the production with 143 hits, 27 home runs, and 93 RBI on the season. Alec Burleson adds 143 hits of his own, along with 21 home runs and 94 RBI. Ivan Herrera and JJ Wetherholt have each also tallied 118 hits while combining for 31 home runs and 100 RBI, while Masyn Winn has also eclipsed 100 hits. Nathan Church and Jose Fermin also play key roles on the team.
After a rocky start to the season, the Philadelphia Phillies look to be finding their stride at the right time. They will enter this game on an eight game winning streak, and have improved to 72-58 on the year. Philadelphia is currently three games back of the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the NL East, and holds a two-game cushion in the Wild Card race. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 53-77 to the run line, and the run total is 59-63-8 to the over/under.
Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies, looking to add to his stellar start to the year. Across his first 26 starts, Sanchez enters with a 16-4 record, a 2.51 ERA, a 1.219 WHIP, 13 home runs allowed, and 187 strikeouts tallied across 161.2 innings pitched. Sanchez hit a bit of a midseason lull after one of the best starts to the year in all of baseball, but has a 1.17 ERA across his past four starts. The two-time All-Star has faced off with this Cardinals team in 39 at-bats across his career. He has limited St. Louis to seven hits, while recording 16 strikeouts in these opportunities.
The Phillies are slashing a collective .243/.314/.404 with a .718 OPS at the plate. They are tied for 17th in the league in hits, rank 10th in total runs, 11th in home runs, and 15th in strikeouts tallied. Trea Turner leads the team with 127 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 49 RBI. Brandon Marsh adds 124 hits, plus 17 home runs and 55 RBI, while Bryce Harper contributes 117 hits, 26 home runs and 75 RBI. Kyle Schwarber leads the MLB with 38 home runs on the season, while Alec Bohm has been red-hot at the plate. Luis Arraez has provided a nice stylistic contrast in their lineup and was their biggest addition at the trade deadline, while Bryson Stott and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
Cardinals at Phillies pick, best bet
The Phillies look to be on an absolute tear right now and expect this to carry into this matchup as well. Kyle Leahy has performed at an incredible level of late, and my lean is toward the under given the incredible pitching matchup this will be. But there has been a collective shift in plate approach from this Phillies team in which they have become less dependent on home run production, and embraced more small-ball. After living and dying with the long ball for several years, the Phillies lead all of baseball in on-base percentage, walk rate, and strikeout rate in the month of August. There has been a collective effort to take pitches, accept walks, and not be so dependent on home run production.
Expect a clear effort to work counts on Leahy and chase him out of the game as soon as possible. The St. Louis bullpen is posting a collective 4.36 ERA on the season, which is the eighth-worst rate in the MLB. While the sample size is small, there are also some encouraging statistical trends in how the Phillies have faced Leahy. Alec Bohm, who has tallied 27 hits across his past 19 games, is 3-for-3 against Leahy while Bryce Harper, Luis Arraez, and Brandon Marsh have each notched an extra-base hit in four at-bats or fewer.
Cristopher Sánchez has faded a bit since his start to the season, but is showing signs of getting back on track. He has pitched 5.0 innings or deeper in every start this season and through six scoreless innings against this Cardinals lineup less than two weeks ago while allowing just four hits. Sanchez has made four career starts against St. Louis and is 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Expect the two-time All-Star to pull his weight and put the Phillies in a position to win, while the bats handle the rest of the responsibility.
The Phillies have covered the run line in six of the eight games in this winning streak. They are the more talented team, playing in better form, and with the overall pitching advantage in this game. Count on Philadelphia remaining hot and putting up runs at a rate the Cardinals cannot match to cover the 1.5-run line and complete the series sweep.
Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (-105)
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