Seattle has won the first two games 6-5 and 5-4 through consecutive walk-off rallies. Chicago has hit six series homers, including four Friday and two Saturday. The Cubs have nevertheless lost three straight despite leading during every game. Seattle has won five of seven and remains two games from the final American League wild-card position. Its pitching staff remains the obvious concern. Mariners pitchers own a 6.63 ERA with 20 homers allowed across 10 games. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mariners vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Bryce Miller’s 3.71 season ERA and 1.04 WHIP hide a severe current decline. He has allowed 20 hits, 14 earned runs, five walks, and three homers across 15 2/3 August innings. Opponents have batted .313/.357/.578 during that stretch, producing a .935 OPS and Miller’s 8.04 monthly ERA. His broader seven-start sample includes a 6.57 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Miller has averaged only 15.8 outs across five starts, finishing before the 17th out four times. His fifth-inning ERA sits at 5.17, while his sixth-inning mark reaches 4.50.
Shota Imanaga supplies the stronger recent baseline with a 2.67 ERA across his last 12 starts. He struck out 10 across six innings Tuesday, allowing only two hits and three runs. Imanaga’s 24.2% strikeout rate remains paired with an elite 5.5% walk rate. Home-run damage has created nearly every current problem. He has surrendered five homers and eight earned runs across 15 2/3 August innings. His 10% barrel rate and .411 expected slugging percentage give Seattle a direct scoring route whenever hitters elevate his four-seamer.
Chicago enters with tremendous power form despite its uneven overall results. The Cubs have hit 19 homers with 36 extra-base hits across 10 games. Their .451 slugging percentage during that stretch compensates for a modest .230 average. Alex Bregman is 14-for-41 with six homers and 13 RBIs during the same window. Three of those homers have come during this series. Pete Crow-Armstrong has five homers among nine recent hits, supported by a 90.2-mph exit velocity and 48.7% hard-hit rate. Michael Busch and Ian Happ have also homered against Seattle.
Cubs vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Randy Arozarena provides Seattle’s strongest answer after collecting three hits, two homers, and three RBIs Saturday. His second homer traveled 404 feet and ended the game against Jacob Webb. Arozarena is batting .268 with four homers and seven RBIs across 10 games. His 90.7-mph exit velocity and improving elevation fit Imanaga’s current home-run vulnerability. Seattle’s surrounding lineup remains less dependable. Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and Dominic Canzone went 0-for-12 with six strikeouts Saturday. Brendan Donovan’s possible concussion could remove Seattle’s best recent on-base hitter.
Both bullpens create late-game scoring paths. Andrés Muñoz surrendered Bregman’s tying homer Friday before Seattle escaped during extra innings. Webb allowed three ninth-inning runs Saturday, ending his 24-appearance scoreless streak. Chicago’s staff owns a 5.13 ERA with 16 homers allowed across 10 games. The Cubs have also permitted 1.55 HR/9 throughout August. Miller’s 2.09 home ERA and T-Mobile Park’s cool conditions supply legitimate resistance. However, nine series homers and two compromised bullpens outweigh that run-suppression case.
Best bet: Over 7.5 (−107), playable to −120
Projected score: Cubs 5, Mariners 4
Best bet: Cubs vs. Mariners o7.5 total runs scored (-105)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
