Is the NFC North the best division in the NFL? That question seems comical after enduring all those fumbling, bumbling seasons by the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears, but here we are. Last season, every team in the division had a winning record, the third time in NFL history that’s happened. The year before that, the division had three double-digit winners. Those Lions? Well, Detroit has gone from winning the division in 2023 and 2024 with 12 and 15 W’s respectively. Things change fast in the NFL due to injuries and player/coach turnover.
Here’s how things look on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Detroit Lions
The Lions endured a plethora of injuries last season and limped to a 9-8 record. But that brings a huge benefit this season, as the schedule is projected to be one of the easiest. Drew Petzing is the new offensive coordinator after leading the Arizona Cardinals offense the last three seasons. A wide-zone, run-heavy approach with play-action will likely be the foundation. And he has weapons galore at his disposal.
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league, rushing 243 times for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns last season while catching 77 of 94 passes for 616 yards and five touchdowns. That workload could increase as running mate David Montgomery is now in Houston, and he garnered around 40% of the snaps in Detroit last season. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams make up one of the best wide receiver duos in the league while Sam LaPorta is one of the better tight ends. Jared Goff has thrown for over 4,000 yards with at least 29 touchdowns in four straight seasons.
The pass offense won’t be the issue, as the unit put up the fifth-highest EPA per dropback. The run game had the 22nd-highest EPA per carry, but Petzing should have them near the top sooner than later. The offensive line is rated 19th by PFF, but that could improve as center Cade Mays returns to action.
Defensively, the unit allowed the 15th-lowest EPA per dropback. The 31 passing touchdowns allowed were the fifth-most. The 13 interceptions were tied for eighth-most while the 19 total turnovers were tied for 10th-most. The pressure rate was 10th-highest while the 49 sacks were fourth-most. DJ Wonnum was one of the additions for the defense. While he does have two eight-sack seasons, he was only able to rack up three last season. That said, being on the other side of Aidan Hutchinson should offer plenty of opportunities.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were 28th in pass rate last season and have historically been towards the bottom in the Matt LaFleur era. Pass rate? Whatever, mate, as LaFleur has led the Packers to winning records in six of seven seasons with five playoff appearances. Word on the street is that could change a bit, as Jordan Love is given more responsibilities. I’ll believe it when I see it.
That said, Green Bay was third in EPA per dropback, Love is entering his fourth year as a starter and there are weapons at his disposal. First-round pick Matthew Golden has been getting rave reviews at camp, Christian Watson is healthy (for now) and Jayden Reed has flashed in the past and is also healthy (for now). That’s a nice triumvirate. Tucker Kraft is a YAC beast at tight end and he is also healthy (for now).
On the ground, the Packers posted the 20th-highest EPA per carry. Josh Jacobs scored 13 touchdowns in 15 games, but averaged only 4.0 yards per carry. Jacobs is dealing with some off-the-field matters, which could impact playing time. Behind him is MarShawn Lloyd, who’s had an extensive injury history since being selected in the third round of the 2024 draft, but he’s healthy (for now) and has been impressive so far this offseason.
The run defense was good, posting the seventh-lowest EPA per carry. The pass defense? Another story, as the EPA per dropback was 11th-highest. The 14 turnovers were tied for the fourth-fewest. The pressure rate was seventh-best, but the 37 sacks were middle of the pack. Micah Parsons will be out to start the season as he is recovering from ACL surgery, so that’s a blow to the pass rush. Green Bay did add Javon Hargrave to the defensive line and will insert Zaire Franklin to patrol the middle at linebacker.
Chicago Bears
All Hail, Ben Johnson, as he took over a 5-12 team that hadn’t had a winning record since 2018, and guided the Bears to 11 wins, drastically improving the offense. The 441 total points scored were the most since 2013 and first time over 400 since 2018.
The EPA per carry was fourth-best while the EPA per dropback was eighth-best. The completion percentage for Caleb Williams decreased from 62.5% his rookie season to 58.1%, but the yardage, touchdowns and yards per attempt all increased. Second year in the system could provide upside as everyone is more comfortable while learning the nuances of both the playbook and teammates. In addition, a third-year leap from Williams isn’t out of the question. It’s expected. Luther Burden III has been the talk of the offseason and should feast, but he’s currently dealing with an injury. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai provide a lethal 1-2 punch in the backfield.
The offensive line is rated fifth by PFF. This team should score a ton of points.
Defensively is where the troubles may lie. The EPA per carry was 10th-highest last season. The run defense allowed 20 touchdowns and 4.8 yards per carry. The pass defense was middle of the pack, posting the 17th-highest EPA per dropback, but the 23 interceptions and 33 total turnovers were both tops in the league. Unfortunately, the pressure rate was 10th-lowest while the 35 sacks were tied for the fifth-fewest. In addition, free safety Coby Bryant is out for 4-6 months after undergoing knee surgery. Adding Devin Bush at middle linebacker and Dillon Thieneman at strong safety should help matters, but the defensive line is running it back, and that’s not a good thing.
Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy was so bad last season that he turned former quarterback-proof Justin Jefferson into a bust. He was so bad that Geno Smith, with 17 interceptions and 55 sacks, had a higher EPA per dropback. Well, he can no longer do damage as the Vikings went out and signed Kyler Murray, who has been named the starting quarterback after some window dressing. Is Murray great? He definitely has his flaws and has an injury history. That said, he can still run, is a veteran that has had success in the league and there are weapons on this team.
Jefferson is the alpha and should bounce back with, honestly, anyone besides McCarthy. Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings round out the receiving group. T.J. Hockenson is coming back from injury and is getting up there in age, but he has two seasons with at least 85 receptions, 900 yards and five touchdowns. The run game is centered around Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason, who has been playing very well this preseason. Demond Claiborne is an explosive back. With defenses having to account for the rushing ability of Murray, the playcalling of Kevin O’Connell, the run blocking of Jennings and the likelihood of Jefferson doing Jefferson things, the offense should be much improved.
PFF rates the offensive line as the 12th-best.
On the other side of the ball, the defensive line is stout. The unit allowed the second-lowest EPA per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and 4.1 yards per carry. The pass defense posted the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback. The 15 passing touchdowns allowed were the second-fewest while the 21 total turnovers were tied for the eighth-most. The line produced the third-highest pressure rate and the 49 sacks were fourth-most.
Conclusion
Top to bottom, this is an excellent division, as all four teams are in play to win the division. The Vikings defense is one of the best in all of football and there are certainly question marks on offense, but it’s well within the range of outcomes that this becomes one of the better units. Let’s not forget that Minnesota was 6-4 in J.J. McCarthy’s starts. Vikings at +510 is very enticing.
