In the afternoon window of the Sunday MLB slate, the Minnesota Twins will take on the San Diego Padres.
The Padres have picked up victories in both of the opening two games of this series and will be looking to complete the sweep. Bailey Ober and Walker Buehler will get the start for their respective squads.
Looking at the odds, the Padres enter as -147 favorites on the Moneyline and hold +134 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Twins hold +137 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at nine.
Twins at Padres prediction, preview
The Minnesota Twins enter with a 63-67 record on the season. They sit in third place in the American League Central, 4.5 games back from the lead and just one game back from the final Wild Card seed. Minnesota is looking to bounce back from a pair of losses to this Padres team, but swept the Braves in the series before this. On the season overall, the Twins have gone 69-61 to the run line, and the run total is 68-53-9 to the over/under.
Bailey Ober will get the start for the Twins tonight, marking his 20th start of the season. The 6-foot-9 right-hander enters with a 7-4 record, a 4.62 ERA, a 1.248 WHIP, 17 home runs allowed, and 71 strikeouts tallied across 103.1 innings pitched. Ober has faced off with this Padres’ lineup in 83 at-bats in his career, allowing 20 hits and recording 17 strikeouts in these opportunities.
At the plate, the Twins are slashing a collective .245/.319/.405 with a .724 OPS. Minnesota ranks 13th in the league in hits, ninth in total runs, 15th in home runs, and has tallied the eighth-fewest strikeouts. Josh Bell leads the team with 117 hits, along with 17 home runs and 77 RBI. Brooks Lee adds 113 hits of his own, with 19 home runs and 68 RBI, while Luke Keaschall is right behind him with 112 hits on the year. Kody Clemens is the lone other player to record 100+ hits, along with 21 home runs and 64 RBI, while Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, and Austin Martin also play key roles.
The San Diego Padres hold a 70-60 record on the season, which slots them nine games back from the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League West. They currently hold a two-game advantage for the final Wild Card seed, and have won 10 of their past 13 games. On the season overall, the Padres have gone 73-57 to the run line, and the run total is 57-70-3 to the over/under.
Walker Buehler will be on the mound for San Diego, marking his 26th of the season. The two-time All-Star enters with a 7-6 record, a 4.79 ERA, a 1.388 WHIP, 14 home runs allowed, and 104 strikeouts tallied across 120.1 innings pitched. Buehler struggled a bit during the middle of the season to inflate his stats, but is posting a 3.16 ERA across his past six starts. He has faced this Twins team in 27 at-bats in his career, recording nine hits and eight strikeouts.
Looking at the Padres’ production at the plate, the team is slashing a collective .238/.315/.389 with a .705 OPS. San Diego ranks 25th in hits, 21st in runs, 17th in home runs, and 19th in strikeouts. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 142 hits, including 27 doubles, 15 home runs, and 63 RBI. Jackson Merrill adds 118 hits and a team-worst 132 strikeouts along with 20 home runs and 65 RBI. Manny Machado offers a team-high 24 home runs along with 72 RBI, while Ty France and Gavin Sheets combine for 34 home runs, and Xander Bogaerts also plays a key role.
Twins at Padres pick, best bet
The Padres produced a 6-2 victory in the series opener, and a 7-5 win in yesterday’s matchup. The bats have been heating up of late for San Diego, despite some underwhelming overall stats on the season. They also have had relative success against Bailey Ober in his career, with 20 hits notched in 83 at-bats. This includes nine doubles, two home runs, and six RBI. Both Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have notched a home run across just nine total at-bats. Ober has been hit or miss all season for this Twins team. He is posting a 5.79 ERA across his past 10 starts, and has given up 12 home runs in these opportunities. He has given up two or more earned runs in 15 of his 19 starts this year.
In contrast, Walker Buehler is trending in the right direction of late. He had a pair of starts at the beginning of July in which he allowed 16 combined earned runs and saw his stats regress in a major way. But this came after five consecutive starts with just one earned run allowed, and he is posting a 4.05 ERA since. The Padres are 6-1 in these starts since and 17-8 in games that Buehler has pitched this season.
Expect both pitching trends to continue and for Buehler to pull his weight in putting his team in a position to win. Both of these teams should be playing with desperation as they fight to carve their postseason path. But the Padres have asserted themselves in this series already and will look to do the same today.
San Diego has covered the run line in six consecutive home games, and the Twins have lost five straight games against NL West opponents with a winning record. Expect San Diego to remain hot at the plate and complete the sweep with the home crowd behind them. In both of the matchups thus far, the bats have come alive in the later stages of the game to take a lead. Expect Buehler to do a better job putting the Padres in a position to win and for the bats to carry the same level of impact en route to a victory by San Diego.
Best bet: Padres Moneyline (-147)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
