Los Angeles has won five straight, although Pittsburgh has made both series victories uncomfortable. The Pirates lost 5-4 in 10 innings Friday before falling 4-3 Saturday. They have produced 19 hits, seven runs, five doubles, and two homers during the series. Pittsburgh is batting .245 with a .400 slugging percentage across 10 games. Its 28 extra-base hits and 11 homers reveal considerably better contact than the club’s record suggests. Los Angeles has scored 33 runs during its streak, winning three times by one or two runs. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Blake Snell has looked fully restored since returning from elbow surgery. He has allowed two runs, five hits, and four walks across his last 12 innings. Snell struck out 15, surrendered no homers, and completed six innings during both starts. His 2.16 xERA sits well below his 3.60 ERA. Opponents have produced an .189 expected average, .228 expected slugging percentage, and 82.8-mph exit velocity. Snell has yet to allow a barrel across 35 batted balls. His 96.2-mph four-seamer, curveball, and changeup have generated a 31.7% strikeout rate.
Pittsburgh will counter with Lake Bachar one day after he worked a scoreless inning. That consecutive-day assignment almost guarantees another short appearance before Carmen Mlodzinski or another bulk option enters. Bachar owns a 3.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.59 xERA, and .204 expected average. His slider and curveball both generate whiff rates above 40%. However, his four-seamer has allowed a .500 slugging percentage and 44.3% hard-hit rate. Los Angeles should see several different arms, but Bachar can protect Pittsburgh from an immediate crooked inning.
Oneil Cruz has immediately restored violence to Pittsburgh’s batting order. He has two homers and seven RBIs across four games since returning, including Saturday’s two-run triple. Cruz owns a .305/.352/.512 line against lefties with a .864 OPS. His 96.0-mph exit velocity, 58.5% hard-hit rate, and 17.8% barrel rate can challenge Snell’s pristine contact suppression. Bryan Reynolds is 4-for-8 with a walk against Snell. Rafael Flores has added five homers and 11 RBIs across Pittsburgh’s last 10 games. Nick Gonzales is batting .286 with three doubles and five walks during that span.
Pirates vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Los Angeles continues scoring despite uneven production from several stars. Max Muncy collected three hits and two doubles Saturday after homering Friday. Kyle Tucker’s decisive single ended an 0-for-26 drought at Dodger Stadium. Mookie Betts owns a 91 wRC+, while Tucker carries a 93 mark. Andy Pages’ broken hand removed 21 homers and a 119 wRC+ from the lineup. Alek Thomas supplied an RBI single during his Dodgers debut, but Pages’ power remains difficult to replace. Dodgers pitchers have posted a 3.42 ERA with five homers allowed across 10 games.
Pittsburgh’s improving pitching supports another tight finish. Pirates arms produced a 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 27% strikeout rate during the previous seven-game window. Mason Montgomery owns a 0.00 August ERA with three saves and a 65% strikeout rate. He has posted a 1.02 ERA and 0.62 WHIP since June 29. Los Angeles used Evan Phillips, Jack Dreyer, and Tanner Scott after Tarik Skubal on Saturday. Temperatures near 94 degrees favor offense, but Snell’s contact suppression discourages chasing the total. Pittsburgh has lost both series games by exactly one run, making the plus-money cushion the strongest market position.
Best bet: Pirates +1.5 (+104), playable to −110
Projected score: Dodgers 4, Pirates 3
Best bet: Pirates +1.5 (+105) at Dodgers
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