Sunday night’s Little League Classic carries an additional prize beyond the result between Atlanta and Milwaukee. DraftKings’ King of the Bases promotion awards shares of $500,000 to bettors backing the game’s total-bases leader. Every hit matters differently. Singles supply one base, doubles supply two, triples supply three, and homers produce four. Walks, errors, and hit-by-pitches contribute nothing. The winning strategy therefore requires power, contact volume, lineup position, and an honest assessment of expected public ownership.
Milwaukee enters Williamsport with six victories across seven games and a .270 average during its last 10. Atlanta has lost five of six while batting .220 and slugging .326 across the same window. Tyler Mahle has allowed 11 Atlanta pitching homers during the team’s last 10 games. Shane Drohan opposes a Braves offense held to one run during each series game. Journey Bank Ballpark adds unusual geometry, including 323 feet to left and 331 feet to right. Cooler weather should prevent a complete power carnival, increasing the value of doubles and multi-hit routes.
Keep in mind: while the bet rewards the hitter with the most total bases, your bet does not have to be placed on a player’s total bases. This is simply the strategy I’m employing and recommending for my audience.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
DraftKings King of the Bases promotional details
How to Play King of the Bases
- Opt in to receive your King of the Bases token in the Promotions page
- Make a Batter Prop Milestone bet on DraftKings Sportsbook and apply your token (minimum $5 bet)
- If the hitter you wagered on with your token applied finishes the game with the most total bases, win a share of $500K in bonus bets
Here are the details:
In-depth analysis below.
Best bets for Braves vs. Brewers King of the Bases
Before you read my analysis, I’d like to draw your attention to my colleague Zach Thompson’s value/strategy picks for this promotion, which differ from mine entirely!
Jake Bauers 2+ total bases (+160)
Jake Bauers owns the strongest marriage of current damage, matchup quality, and potential promotion leverage. He is batting .273/.384/.506 with 23 homers, 74 RBIs, 76 runs, and a career-high .233 ISO. Bauers leads Milwaukee with two homers across 10 games. He also went 4-for-4 against Los Angeles six days ago. Saturday’s homer followed a magnificent 12-pitch plate appearance against Martín Pérez. His strike-zone control and violence currently coexist.
The advanced numbers elevate that production beyond an ordinary heater. Bauers owns a 92.5-mph exit velocity, 53.1% hard-hit rate, 14.2% barrel rate, and 37.5% sweet-spot rate. He has batted .333 and slugged .556 against four-seamers. Sinkers have yielded a .264 average and .528 slugging percentage. Those two pitch families account for the easiest damage against Tyler Mahle’s broader repertoire.
Mahle owns a 4.53 ERA, 4.17 xERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 16 homers allowed across 113 1/3 innings. Opponents have batted .255 against him, while producing a 90.0-mph exit velocity. Atlanta has allowed 11 homers across 10 games. Journey Bank Ballpark also measures 331 feet down the right-field line.
The promotion strategy strengthens Bauers further. Olson, Acuña, and Chourio should absorb the largest public ownership. Bauers possesses comparable one-swing leadership upside at considerably lower popularity. He can lead through a homer, two doubles, or a multi-hit game. Milwaukee’s .270 average and 9.4 hits per game across 10 contests protect his plate-appearance quality.
Jackson Chourio 2+ total bases (+110)
Jackson Chourio carries the highest straightforward probability of leading this game in total bases. He owns a .280/.342/.469 line with 17 homers, 50 RBIs, and a 121 wRC+. Milwaukee should place him first or second, creating the board’s best five-plate-appearance possibility. That volume separates Chourio from powerful hitters stationed deeper in either lineup.
His contact quality has taken a significant step forward. Chourio owns a 92.0-mph exit velocity, 47.1% hard-hit rate, and 13.2% barrel rate. Statcast gives him a .257 xBA, .474 xSLG, and .338 xwOBA. His 74.4-mph bat speed supports the power, while his 66.2% ideal-attack rate sharpens the launch profile. Chourio can create total bases through both gap contact and over-the-fence force.
The recent team environment also favors him. Milwaukee is batting .270 with a .397 slugging percentage across 10 games. The Brewers have averaged 9.4 hits and 2.4 extra-base hits during that stretch. Chourio collected three hits and scored three runs against Los Angeles six days ago. He has since helped Milwaukee win six of seven.
Tyler Mahle has allowed a .247 expected average, .405 expected slugging percentage, and 24 barrels. His splitter has surrendered a .276 average and .431 slugging percentage. Chourio’s flatter, powerful swing can drive that pitch into either gap. Williamsport’s 323-foot left-field line also rewards his pull-side lift.
The strategic drawback comes from popularity. Chourio’s recognizable name, favorable matchup, and +112 price should attract considerable promotion volume. A Chourio victory could therefore produce a smaller pool share than Bauers. He remains the safest leader candidate, especially if Bauers falls below fourth.
William Contreras 2+ total bases (+129)
William Contreras enters Williamsport with the game’s strongest immediate contact form. He went 4-for-4 Friday before adding two hits, one RBI, and one run Saturday. Contreras has therefore collected six hits through two games against Atlanta. His .297/.400/.432 line across 10 games includes more walks than strikeouts. That combination creates exceptional floor for a leader contest built exclusively around hits.
Contreras owns a .257/.330/.381 season line with 12 homers and 63 RBIs. Those surface numbers understate his current swing and excellent plate coverage. Statcast credits him with a .263 xBA, .440 xSLG, and .336 xwOBA. His 90.2-mph exit velocity and 43.9% hard-hit rate remain comfortably above league average. A 13.7% strikeout rate also gives Contreras more balls in play than Milwaukee’s other power candidates.
That contact profile fits Tyler Mahle particularly well. Mahle has allowed a .255 average and 1.31 WHIP across 21 starts. His splitter produces manageable velocity separation without overwhelming vertical movement. Contreras can stay through that pitch and shoot doubles toward right-center. Mahle’s 90.0-mph exit velocity allowed creates another meaningful opening.
Contreras offers a different promotional path than Bauers or Chourio. He relies less upon one decisive swing and more upon repeated contact. Three singles can win this contest when the game remains quiet. A double and single can also beat an isolated homerless field. Friday supplied exactly that type of volume.
His pool ownership should land between Chourio and Bauers. The lower barrel rate reduces outright-leader probability, although six series hits deserve respect. Contreras becomes the best pivot if he bats second and Bauers drops below fourth.
