Closing down today’s MLB slate, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the Sunday Night Baseball acton. This matchup will be taking place in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, as this year’s MLB Little League Classic, and expect plenty of faces for the Little League World Series in attendance.
These are two heavyweight National League threats, each leading their respective divisions on the season. The Brewers picked up wins in each of the first two matchups of this series and will be looking to complete the sweep with Shane Drohan on the mound tonight. The Braves will lean on Tyler Mahle as their starting pitcher in the matchup.
Looking at the odds, the Brewers enter as -112 favorites to win outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Braves hold +104 odds of producing the upset, and the run total is set at 7.5.
Braves at Brewers prediction, preview
The Atlanta Braves enter with a 75-55 record on the season, sitting in the top spot in the National League East. They entered today with just a three-game advantage over the Phillies for the divisional lead, with the Phillies gaining some ground of late. Atlanta is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, and has lost seven of their last nine. On the season overall, the Braves have gone 69-61 to the run line, and the run total is 59-65-6 to the over/under.
Tyler Mahle was traded from the Giants to the Braves during the season and will be making his fourth start for Atlanta. He is posting a 1.45 ERA across his three starts and 18.2 innings pitched with the Braves thus far. On the season overall, Mahle is posting a 4-10 record, a 4.53 ERA, a 1.306 WHIP, 16 home runs allowed, and 108 strikeouts tallied across 113.1 innings pitched. He has faced off with his Brewers’ lineup in 45 at-bats in his career. Mahle has limited them to eight hits and 15 strikeouts as well as an overall .488 OPS.
At the plate, the Braves are slashing a collective .246/.310/.411 with a .721 OPS. Atlanta ranks 11th in the league in hits, eighth in total runs, seventh in home runs and 21st in strikeouts. Michael Harris II leads the team with 139 hits, 20 home runs and 70 RBI. Matt Olson has also had a stellar season, adding 131 hits, 36 home runs and 77 RBI. Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Dubon and Drake Baldwin have each eclipsed 100+ hits on the season, while Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. also play key roles.
The Milwaukee Brewers hold an 81-49 record on the season, which earns them the top spot in the National League Central and is the best record in all of baseball. They hold a seven-game lead over the Cubs in the divisional race. Milwaukee enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak, and they have won six of their past seven. On the season overall, the Brewers have gone 68-62 to the run line, and the run total is 56-71-3 to the over/under.
Shane Drohan will take the ball for the Brewers tonight. The rookie has made 25 appearances and 14 starts on the season. Drohan enters with a 6-4 record, a 3.86 ERA, a 1.246 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, and 99 strikeouts tallied across his 100.1 innings pitched. The 27-year-old has never faced a member of this Braves’ lineup.
Looking at the offensive production, the Brewers are slashing a collective .253/.337/.396 with a .733 OPS this season. Milwaukee ranks fifth in MLB in hits, fifth in runs, last in home runs, and 16th in strikeouts. Brice Turang and William Contreras are tied for a team-high 122 hits, and they combine for 28 home runs and 140 RBI. Jake Bauers leads the team with 23 home runs and 74 RBI, while Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Gary Sanchez, and Christian Yelich also play important roles.
Braves at Brewers pick, best bet
The Brewers have been red-hot of late and have made their case for the best team in baseball all season. But this is their least favorable pitching matchup of the series, after Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson put their fingerprints across their first two wins.
Shane Drohan does not instill quite the same level of confidence, and is unproven against this Braves team. The rookie has struggled a bit of late, posting a 5.71 ERA across his past seven starts, and he has allowed two or more earned runs in each of these. This also comes while facing teams like the Rockies, Marlins, Angels, and Pirates who have not performed well at the plate this season. Atlanta has also had success against left-handed pitching, with slash lines of .256/.301/.463 across the past month and will hope to build off this.
In contrast, Tyler Mahle has looked like a different pitcher since coming to the Braves. He threw six scoreless innings in his Atlanta debut, while striking out nine hitters, and has allowed just three total earned runs across his 12.2 innings pitched in his past two outings. Mahle has also had a high level of success against this Brewers’ lineup in his career. He has limited this Milwaukee attack to overall slash lines of .178/.288/.200 with a .488 OPS. The 31-year-old has tallied 15 strikeouts across 45 at-bats.
Expect Atlanta to have more success at the plate due to the more favorable pitching matchup, after notching just two total runs through the first two games. Mahle has been a stabilizing force in the Braves’ rotation since his arrival, and expect this to continue today. The Brewers have also struggled against right-handed pitching of late, which will be problematic against Mahle.
The Braves have cooled down quite a bit from their terrific start to the season, but still are capable of playing high level baseball. Expect Atlanta to begin to feel a sense of urgency from the surging Phillies in the standings, and take advantage of the favorable matchup on the mound. Count on Atlanta attacking early and taking control of this game. Expect a spirited effort from the Braves to avoid the sweep and get back in the win column tonight.
Best bet: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (+104)
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