Closing down their three-game series, the Athletics will face off with the Houston Astros across today’s Sunday afternoon MLB slate.
These teams have split the opening two games of the series. The Astros produced a 4-0 victory in the first game, but the Athletics got back on top in a 4-3 come-from-behind victory yesterday. Brady Basso and Cristian Javier will take the ball for their respective squads today for the rubber match.
Looking at the odds, the Astros enter as -171 favorites and hold +112 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Athletics hold +159 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at nine runs.
Athletics at Astros prediction, preview
The Athletics enter with a 50-80 record on the season, which slots them in last place of the American League West and marks the worst record in baseball. Their victory yesterday snapped a five-game losing streak, and they will look for some positive signs in the final stretch of the year. On the season overall, the Athletics have gone 59-71 to the run line, and the run total is 63-63-4 to the over/under.
Brady Basso will get the start for the Athletics tonight, marking his 17th appearance of the season but just his third start. The 28-year-old enters with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.348 WHIP, two home runs allowed, and 19 strikeouts tallied across his 23.0 innings pitched this season. Basso has just 57.0 innings of MLB experience to his name, and has only faced off with this Astros lineup in six at-bats in his career. He has allowed two hits and tallied two strikeouts in these opportunities.
As an offensive unit, the Athletics are posting slash marks of .244/.318/.399 with a .717 OPS. They rank 13th in the league in hits, 20th in total runs, 13th in home runs, and 11th in strikeouts. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have tallied the two most hits on the team, but each is currently sidelined on the injured list. Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson are also among the top performers, but are sidelined with injury issues of their own. Of the available bodies, Jeff McNeil contributes 95 hits, six home runs, and 43 RBI. Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler, and Jonah Heim have each notched double-digit home runs, while Henry Bolte and Carlos Cortes also play notable roles.
The Houston Astros sit at the top of the American League West with a 65-65 record on the season. They hold a one-game advantage over the Texas Rangers for the divisional lead, and enter this matchup having lost five of their past seven games. On the season, the Astros have gone 64-66 to the run line, and the run total is 67-57-6 to the over/under.
Cristian Javier will take the ball for the Astros tonight. This will mark his 12th appearance and eighth start on the season. Across his 36.1 innings pitched, the right-hander is posting a 1-4 record, a 6.44 ERA, a 1.679 WHIP, seven home runs allowed, and 30 strikeouts tallied. Javier has struggled in the starter role, posting an 8.23 ERA across his seven starts. He has faced this Athletics lineup in 35 combined at-bats in his career, allowing eight hits and recording seven strikeouts.
At the plate, the Astros are slashing a combined .242/.317/.410 with a .727 OPS. Houston ranks 19th in total hits, 12th in runs, fourth in home runs, and 17th in strikeouts. Yordan Alvarez has had a stellar season with 147 hits notched along with an American League-leading 36 home runs and 90 RBI. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have each cracked 107+ hits of their own, and combine for 39 home runs and 140 RBI. Cam Smith, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Yainer Diaz each also play notable roles.
Athletics at Astros pick, best bet
The Astros are in a tight postseason race, and not performing to the level they would hope to be given the circumstances. In general, Cristian Javier has been a weak spot in the rotation, with Houston going 3-8 in games that he has appeared in. The right-hander has shown some positive signs of late, with a 3.86 ERA across his past five outings, and will look to benefit off an Athletics’ offense that leaves plenty to be desired from a production standpoint.
But there is even less certainty in the Athletics’ pitching outlook. Brady Basso has just 57.0 innings pitched at the MLB level and has given up two hits in six at-bats against this Astros team. The Athletics are just 2-14 in games that Basso has pitched in this season.
It was an impressive victory by the Athletics last night, with their three-run output in the eighth inning proving to be the difference. But late innings have been a point of vulnerability for the bulk of the season, as the Athletics are posting an MLB-worst 5.73 collective bullpen ERA this year. The Kansas City Royals are the only other team in the league with an ERA above 4.85 as a bullpen unit.
Neither of these teams are in their best form of late. The Athletics have lost five of their last six games, while the Astros have fallen short in five of their past seven. But there is more talent on Houston’s roster, and the pitching matchup narrowly favors them. These are the types of games they cannot afford to lose if they are to earn their desired playoff path, and expect them to wake up and produce with this in mind. Count on the Astors capitalizing on the pitching matchup and putting up runs at a rate the Athletics cannot match to get the outright victory today.
Best bet: Houston Astros Moneyline (-171)
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