The Washington Nationals are in South Beach over the weekend for their series against the Miami Marlins, but it got off to a rough start for the visiting club. Yesterday, the Nets fell 3-2 in the late innings as they slipped a little further down the postseason picture. Today, the clubs run it back again at LoanDepot Park with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Nationals vs. Marlins game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Yesterday’s win means the Marlins are back above .500 at 65-64 with a run differential of +15 on the year. Yes, they’re just 13-19 since the All-Star break, but they’re still just four games shy of the NL Wild Card. The Nationals are watching the season slip away, though, sitting 61-69 with a +16 run differential. Since the break, they’re 13-20 and have dropped to 8.5 games out of a postseason berth.
RHP Jake Irvin (2-7) will start for the Nats today. It’s hardly been a productive season for the veteran arm, who carries a 5.80 ERA into this outing. That mark is surely elevated, though a 1.36 WHIP and his 72 strikeouts over 71.1 IP do look better. His K% sits at 23.0% with a 9.9% BB%, but it’s a third-percentile barrel rate and high average exit velocity that could cause issues.
For the Marlins, standout RHP Eury Perez (6-9) takes the mound. He’s delivered a bounce-back campaign with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 133 strikeouts over 122.2 IP. His K% is 26.9% with above-average whiff and chase rates, though a 9.9% BB% is on the high side. Perhaps more impressive is that he hasn’t allowed a single home run over his last eight starts dating back to June 30.
While the Nationals are at a disadvantage on the bump, they do have the better bats for the most part. Their .758 OPS ranks second in baseball and they still lead the sport in total runs scored. A .184 ISO also still paces all other clubs, as do their 183 home runs. They also slash .245/.319/.430 against right-handers for an OPS of .749 just in the platoon split. There’s still reason to be worried here, though – since star slugger James Wood hit the IL on August 4, they’re down to 21st in OPS at .688 and 18th in runs scored.
Meanwhile, the Marlins are 10th in OPS this season at .728 but 19th in total runs scored. A .152 ISO slots in at only 21st and their 131 home runs fall 25th as well, so don’t expect a ton of pop at the plate. Since the All-Star break as well, they have an OPS of just .686 with a wRC+ that falls 21st, and they are 23rd in total runs scored. Over the full season, though, Miami slashes .253/.328/.407 against right-handed pitching with a .736 OPS.
Nationals vs. Marlins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Marlins as a -147 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Nationals enter as +137 underdogs on the road. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
Here’s the deal. The Nats have a shot, even without the aforementioned Abrams and Wood. However, it’s not a great shot. The club is just 6-10 in games that Wood has missed this season, all 16 of which have come in August. Without Abrams, they’re only 1-5 as well, with back-to-back losses coming over this latest stint out of the lineup as he deals with a sprained ankle. Scoring two combined runs over those two games is far from ideal, though to be fair, one came against Jacob deGrom on the mound.
It’s not that the Miami offense itself has stood out since the break, but the presence of Perez as the starter does certainly help the outlook today. With Washington’s two most dangerous hitters sidelined (unless Abrams returns, which doesn’t seem particularly likely), this is a great combination of factors for Marlins -1.5 to cash. And even if Abrams does play, I still feel pretty good about this one.
