The St. Louis Cardinals are back above .500 and are chasing down a Wild Card spot, but the path to secure one will be a difficult one to walk. Tonight, they take on a red-hot Philadelphia Phillies group that’s won seven straight games and just took the opener of this series last night. First pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cardinals vs. Phillies game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Phillies prediction, preview
The Redbirds are just 3.5 games shy of a Wild Card spot at 66-64, and they have somewhat righted a slow start coming out of the All-Star break. Their +9 run differential isn’t much to write home about, but they’ve largely played good baseball this season despite low expectations. The Phils, however, underperformed early in the year but are now 71-58 after taking seven straight victories – their run differential is +16 and they hold a two-game lead on a Wild Card berth as they chase the Braves for the top NL East seed.
LHP Quinn Mathews (0-1) was recently called up to the St. Louis roster and has tossed nine innings over his first two MLB starts. The No. 8 prospect in the club’s system, he went 5.0 innings in his debut with six hits, three walks and two earned runs allowed; in his second outing, he threw 4.0 frames with two hits, three walks, one earned run and seven strikeouts. His K% is 24.4% and his BB% is 14.6% in the small sample.
Fellow rookie Andrew Painter (2-8) starts for Philadelphia tonight. The RHP has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP across 85.1 IP this year, striking out 71 batters in this span. His K% is just 18.5% and his BB% is a fair 8.9%. While the average exit velocity and hard-hit rate he brings are both better than average, he’s still underperformed a poor 5.08 xERA and .267 xBA. It’s been a rough rookie campaign for the 23-year-old.
For what it’s worth, the Phillies’ bats are far better than the Cardinals’ as of late. Philly has a .754 OPS since the All-Star break that ranks seventh in baseball, while the club also sits ninth in runs scored over this span. The Phils remain a significant power threat with an ISO of .160, though they slash just .234/.317/.379 against lefty pitchers. The Cardinals are just 24th in OPS this year at .700, a mark that dips to .679 since the break while still ranking 12th in scoring since then. Power is not a strong suit with a .122 ISO over this sample and a .141 ISO on the season that falls 27th. St. Louis slashes .242/.316/.380 with a .696 OPS vs. right-handers this year.
Cardinals vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as a -159 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Cardinals enter as +148 underdogs on the road. The total is set at nine combined runs.
Mathews has been very good at the Triple-A level this year, throwing to the tune of a 3.27 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 120 strikeouts in 99.0 IP. That’s not a guy I really want to bet against here, even against a very good lineup. St. Louis’ scoring hasn’t been anything crazy, but the club is well-positioned to succeed against Painter, who has not had a good rookie campaign. If I was betting on a team to win here, I’d lean toward the Redbirds as an underdog.
However, I’d actually rather look at Mathews’ strikeout prop here. I like the over on 4.5 strikeouts given his success at getting batters to go down at the Triple-A level and the upside he showed with seven punchouts in his second MLB outing. While Philly has kept strikeouts at a minimum since the break, there’s some upside in this young arm and the line feels a bit too low based on that Minor League sample.
