The Red Sox host old friend Rafael Devers and the Giants for the second game of their series on Saturday night as part of a busy Saturday night on the MLB scoreboard. Raffy homered in Friday’s return to Fenway, but the Red Sox still won the game, 6-4. Saturday’s contest is one of three feature matchups on FOX and should be an entertaining matchup between these unusual interleague foes at Fenway. Let’s dive into the matchup and make a prediction as to how Saturday’s matchup will play out.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Red Sox are home favorites at -204 on the Moneyline to win outright and hold +102 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Giants have +189 odds of pulling off the upset and getting the win, while the run total is 8.0.
Giants at Red Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox and Giants each started the season as teams with playoff aspirations who stumbled out of the gate. The difference between the two teams at this point in the season is that the Red Sox caught fire in July and August and climbed back into the playoff race, while the Giants just remained a dumpster fire and remain well out of the playoff picture.
Boston is 69-59 after its win on Friday and has won five of its last eight games. The Giants, on the other hand, are 52-76 with just two wins in their last eight games. They lost two of three games to the Rockies and the Guardians before shipping up to Boston for this weekend.
On Saturday, the Red Sox will give the ball to lefty Patrick Sandoval, who will be making his eighth start of the year. Sandoval has a 4.76 ERA and just a 3.67 FIP despite an elevated 1.85 WHIP. The BABIP against him is a ridiculously high .419 (league average is .300), so his batted ball luck has been brutal.
Sandoval got roughed up for seven runs on nine hits in his last start against the Pirates on the road. At home, though, he has a 3.68 ERA, and the Red Sox have won each of his three starts at Fenway. He’s gotten good run support at home with the Sox winning 6-4 and 14-2 in his last two home outings.
He gets the advantage of facing the Giants on Saturday night, who continue to struggle at the plate, especially against left-handed pitchers. In August, the Giants have scored an MLB-worst 56 runs (3.1 runs per game) while hitting only .212 as a team. They also rank in the top 10 in K% and the bottom five in SLG and wOBA.
They haven’t given their starting pitchers much run support, and Saturday’s starter Blade Tidwell has yet to earn a victory despite a few strong outings. The 25-year-old rookie has made 11 appearances (three starts) this year and has a 4.33 ERA in the majors. In Triple-A with Sacramento, he has compiled a 4.38 ERA and 4.87 FIP while making 15 starts and racking up 72 innings.
Tidwell wasn’t hit hard in his most recent outing, but he struggled with control, issuing five walks and allowing three hits, which resulted in six runs against him at home against the Rockies. In his three starts since joining the rotation, the Giants are 0-3, losing 5-4 to the Rangers, 6-3 against the Astros, and 13-7 to Colorado.
The Red Sox lineup is a much tougher test for Tidwell since it ranks near the top of most offensive categories since the All-Star break and has multiple hitters coming in with plenty of momentum.
Giants at Red Sox pick, best bet
Since the offenses are trending in opposite directions and Sandoval is due for some positive regression, the Red Sox are a strong play on Saturday night at home. Since they have been scoring so many runs at home and should be able to get to Tidwell, I’m willing to give the extra run and take them to win by multiple runs to get plus-money odds in today’s Giants-Red Sox prediction.
Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+104)
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