The race for WNBA playoff seeding continues on Saturday. Currently the fourth seed, the Indiana Fever will travel to face the seventh-seed New York Liberty, with only two games separating the teams in the standings. With playoff seeds changing hands daily, this matchup will be huge.
The Liberty enter as 2.5-point home favorites with -142 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever are +120 underdogs, with the game total set at 186.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Fever-Liberty matchup.
Fever vs. Liberty Preview
This is the fourth and final meeting between these two teams in the regular season. New York won the first game 83-75 during Commissioner’s Cup play, buckling down for an important victory. But the Fever have gotten their revenge in the meantime, winning 108-88 in July and 106-92 earlier this month. Now they’ll settle the season series, and both teams have everything to play for.
So far, the problem for the Liberty has been keeping a lid on Indiana’s backcourt. In the first Fever victory, Kelsey Mitchell poured in 33 points while Caitlin Clark added 17 points and seven assists. In the second win for the Fever, Mitchell had 28 points, with Clark adding 22 points and 10 assists. For a team that likes to set the tone on defense, allowing Indiana’s superstar guards to run them over is unacceptable. If those two get going, Indiana is bound to score 100+ points again, and the Liberty cannot keep up with that kind of pace.
If you can nitpick those wins for the Fever, the issue has been containing Breanna Stewart. Granted, most teams are struggling to keep New York’s superstar in check, but Indiana has largely let her get whatever looks she wants. They’ve been lucky that it hasn’t hurt them in the past two matchups. With Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones providing inconsistent offense, the impetus is on this Fever defense to force the ball out of Stewie’s hands, or else they’ll get burned.
A big X-factor in this game is Liberty rookie Pauline Astier. While the team navigated a confusing exit for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Astier has become their de facto point-of-attack defender. It’s a heavy burden for the rookie to face off against Mitchell and Clark, but if she can take away some of the easier looks, it gives this Liberty defense room to breathe. If Stewie and Jonquel can get on the front foot defensively, they can flip this matchup on its head.
Not that an All-Star and MVP candidate is an X-factor, but a lot is on the shoulders of Aliyah Boston here. She has to do her best to contain Stewie and Jonquel in the paint, rotate on Ionescu’s drives, and rebound the ball like crazy. That’s a burden she is accustomed to as the sole defensive weapon in this lineup, but New York’s excellent frontcourt heightens the pressure.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who will pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Fever vs. Liberty Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard to ignore both teams’ recent form and how the Fever have handled the Liberty in their last two matchups. This Fever offense remains scorching hot, setting a pace most teams struggle to match. With the Liberty yet to find consistency this year, it’s easy to see the Fever as a value here.
