Last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks opened their weekend series with a dominant 9-0 win over the Cincinnati Reds. Tonight, these clubs go head-to-head again as the D-Backs keep pushing to get back into position for an NL Wild Card berth while the Reds fight to keep their season from falling apart. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Reds vs. Diamondbacks game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Reds are now 18-16 since the All-Star break; far from a bad record, but they’ll need better to keep their slim postseason hopes alive. After losing six of their last eight outings, they’re now 61-68 with a -98 run differential. The Diamondbacks are headed in the opposite direction after going 19-14 since the break, advancing to 68-61 on the year with a +13 differential. They’re now one game out of the Wild Card.
RHP Rhett Lowder (4-8) gets the start for the D-Backs. His ERA is 5.17 with a 1.49 WHIP across 101.0 IP, and he’s struck out just 82 batters over this span. His K% sits at 18.1% with a 9.3% BB%. Largely, there’s very little to feel good about in his analytical profile with only his hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate coming in above the 50th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
RHP Michael Soroka (8-3) takes the mound for the Reds. He carries a 2.93 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 88 punchouts over 92.0 IP into this contest. His K% is 23.5% with an excellent 5.6% BB%, also boasting an 86th-percentile hard-hit rate. He notably just returned from injury two starts ago, allowing only two earned runs over 10.0 combined innings.
As for offense, there’s an advantage for Arizona. The D-Backs’ .717 OPS ranks 15th andt they’re 10th in scoring on the year. Since the break, the OPS climbs to a whopping .780 with an elevated .176 ISO. Facing a right-hander isn’t totally ideal since the lineup excels against lefties and a .231/.307/.380 slash line and .687 OPS on the season in the split aren’t exciting by any means; they’ve still been hitting the ball quite well lately, though.
The Reds’ bats have struggled for the most part. They rank 26th in OPS at .693 and are very reliant on power over OBP, bringing a .164 ISO and the eighth-most homers this year with 165. They’re just 25th in scoring on the campaign though, and since the break, they’re 22nd. Against right-handed pitching, they slash .221/.299/.383 with a .681 OPS.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as a strong -184 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Reds enter as +171 underdogs on the road. The total is set at eight combined runs.
Frankly, I’m riding with the D-Backs again after last night. Lowder’s play has been inconsistent at best this season and he allows plenty of baserunners, which should play nicely for Arizona on the run line. In August alone, the Diamondbacks have a .790 OPS with a .182 ISO that’s way up from their usual standards. Soroka has been excellent in a very limited sample since making his return as well, so I fully expect him to keep scoring down through the early stages while his team builds a lead.
