Closing down Saturday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Atlanta Dream will take on the Phoenix Mercury.
This is the third and final matchup between these teams this season, with the Dream looking to complete the sweep. They edged out an 82-80 victory on May 24 before winning 96-82 on August 5. The Mercury are 1-1 against the spread in these matchups.
Looking at the odds, the Dream enter as 7.5-point favorites with -325 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +260 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 177.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Dream vs. Mercury matchup.
Dream at Mercury Preview
The Atlanta Dream enter with a 23-13 record, which puts them in fifth place in the WNBA standings. They are coming off back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Sparks and Las Vegas Aces, and have won 10 of their past 13 contests. This season, the Dream are 14-22 against the spread, and the game total is 19-17.
Allisha Gray leads the team with 19.5 points per game. Rhyne Howard adds 18.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists of her own, while Angel Reese contributes 15.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. Jordin Canada is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.5 points and a team-high 7.5 assists. Naz Hillmon adds 9.1 points and 4.5 rebounds, while Madina Okot and Te-Hina Paopao also play key roles. Brionna Jones is the lone player expected to miss Saturday due to a left leg injury.
As a team, the Dream ranks third in the league in scoring with 91.2 points per game. They also rank fifth in offensive rating, 12th in field goal percentage, and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 85.7 points per game against the Dream, the fourth-lowest mark in the WNBA. Atlanta also ranks fourth in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Phoenix Mercury have slipped to 13-23, and they sit in 11th place in the overall standings. They are coming off a loss to the Portland Fire in their previous game, and they have fallen short in five of their past seven matchups. On the season, the Mercury have gone 16-20 against the spread, and the game total is 18-18 to the over/under.
Kahleah Copper headlines the production for the Mercury, averaging 20.5 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. The Mercury made a midseason splash to trade for Kelsey Plum, who is averaging 17.3 points and 3.3 assists across her four games played in Phoenix. Plum is listed as questionable for Saturday with her continued leg issue, and she has missed back-to-back games leading into this matchup. Alyssa Thomas adds 14.9 points, 8.2 assists, and 7.5 rebounds, while DeWanna Bonner and Jovana Nogic also average in double figures. Lexi Held, Natasha Mack, and Monique Akoa Makani also play notable roles.
The Mercury are scoring 83.9 points per game this season, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field-goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.5 points per game against Phoenix, which ranks ninth in the league. The Mercury also ranks 12th in defensive rating, 11th in opponent field-goal percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
Dream at Mercury Pick, Best Bet
The questionable label on Kelsey Plum provides a bit of mystery to this matchup. It was a bit of a surprise to see the Mercury take the big swing to bring in the five-time All-Star, given their place in the standings. Plum has provided a spark to the organization, but she is still dealing with injuries, and plenty of issues remain on this Phoenix roster beyond her impact.
My lean is toward the Dream getting the victory and covering the 7.5-point spread. Atlanta is playing high-quality basketball lately and shaping into a team that can make real postseason noise. They have climbed to the fifth favorite to win the Finals at +850 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Atlanta dominated the previous matchup in a 96-82 victory, with the Dream leading 96% of the game and stretching their advantage to as much as 20.
But my best bet is the game total to go over 177.5 points.
The Dream are coming off a season-high 124 points against the Los Angeles Sparks in their previous matchup. They have scored 100+ points in three of their past five games and have not been held below 91 points in any of these matchups. Atlanta ranks third in the league in scoring and has scored above their average in 10 of their past 14 contests. They put up 96 points in the previous matchup with this Mercury team, and the offense has only looked more impressive of late.
On the other side of the matchup, count on Phoenix pulling their weight in the scoring department. This Atlanta defense isn’t as effective as its raw numbers suggest. While they rank fourth in opponent points per game and fourth in defensive rating, the Dream ranks 14th in opponent field goal percentage and last in opponent three-point percentage. Kahleah Copper remains one of the most talented scorers in the WNBA, and Plum is capable of leading the scoring charge if she is on the floor.
The game total has gone over in 19 of the 33 games that the Dream have been favorites this season. The total has also gone over in five of the six games that the Mercury have been home underdogs, and in 11 of their 16 home games overall. Expect both offenses to show up in Saturday’s matchup, and the 177.5 game total to be too low given the context.
