Taking place across Saturday’s 15-game MLB slate, the Athletics will take on the Houston Astros.
These teams opened up their series last night, which resulted in a 4-0 victory by the Astros. Jacob Lopez and Hunter Brown will take the ball for their respective squads, as the Athletics look to even up the series.
Looking at the odds, the Astros enter as -235 favorites and hold -110 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Athletics hold +217 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at eight runs.
Athletics at Astros prediction, preview
The Athletics enter with a 49-80 record on the season, which slots them in last place of the American League West. They have officially sunk to the worst record in the MLB and are looking to snap a five-game losing streak tonight. On the season overall, the Athletics have gone 58-71 to the run line, and the run total is 63-62-4 to the over/under.
Jacob Lopez will get the start for the Athletics tonight, marking his 18th of the season and 21st overall appearance. The 28-year-old enters with a 5-4 record, a 1.534 WHIP, 15 home runs allowed, and 81 strikeouts tallied across his 88.0 innings pitched. Lopez has settled in more as the season has gone on, with two earned runs allowed in three straight starts and a 2.36 ERA across his past seven starts. He has faced off with the Astros in 35 at-bats, allowing seven hits and recording nine strikeouts in these opportunities.
As an offensive unit, the Athletics are posting slash marks of .243/.317/.399 with a .716 OPS. They rank 14th in the league in hits, 20th in total runs, 13th in home runs, and 11th in strikeouts. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have tallied the two most hits on the team, but each is currently sidelined on the injured list. Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson are also among the top performers, but are sidelined with injury issues. Of the available bodies, Jeff McNeil contributes 93 hits, six home runs, and 43 RBI. Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler, and Jonah Heim have each notched double-digit home runs, while Henry Bolte and Carlos Cortes also play notable roles.
The Houston Astros sit at the top of the American League West with a 65-64 record on the season. They hold a one-game advantage over the Texas Rangers for the divisional lead, and enter this matchup having lost four of their past six games. On the season, the Astros have gone 64-65 to the run line, and the run total is 67-56-6 to the over/under.
Hunter Brown will be on the mound for the Astros tonight. This will be just the 14th start of the season for the former All-Star, and he enters with a 3-3 record, a 3.67 ERA, a 1.296 WHIP, with nine home runs allowed and 72 strikeouts tallied across 68.2 innings pitched. He is trending in the wrong direction as the season has progressed, with two or more earned runs allowed in seven of his last eight starts and a 4.78 ERA across this stretch. Brown has faced off with this Athletics lineup in 49 at-bats in his career, limiting them to 10 hits and recording 16 strikeouts in these opportunities.
At the plate, the Astros are slashing a combined .243/.317/.411 with a .728 OPS. Houston ranks 17th in total hits, 11th in runs, fourth in home runs, and 20th in strikeouts. Yordan Alvarez has had a stellar season with 147 hits notched along with an American League-leading 39 home runs and 90 RBI. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have each cracked 106+ hits on the season as well, and combine for 39 home runs and 140 RBI. Cam Smith, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Yainer Diaz each also play notable roles.
Athletics at Astros pick, best bet
These are two teams in the opposite sides of the American League West standings with very different outlooks for the remainder of the season. The Houston Astros are firmly in the playoff race and will have a wandering eye on the standings for the remainder of the year. In contrast, the Athletics are limping to the finish line with their top talents dropping like flies of late. At full strength, there is some fair reason for optimism for the direction of this Athletics team. But four of their top five players in terms of hits tallied are on the injury report and sidelined.
-110 odds are a steep price to back a team on the -1.5 run line spread, but for good reason in this matchup. Hunter Brown is a better pitcher than he has shown of late, and this is the type of get-right matchup he should be eager to capitalize on. While the 49 at-bat sample size is not particularly large, Brown has limited this Athletics lineup to slash lines of .204/.235/.327 with a .562 OPS. The Athletics have also struggled offensively regardless of the matchup of late, and are coming off a scoreless outing yesterday in which they tallied just three total hits.
If the Astros want to earn their place in the MLB postseason, these are the types of matchups they must capitalize on. The Athletics have lost 13 consecutive night games after playing during the day the game before. They also have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road underdogs, and the home team has won each of the last six Athletics games.
Even while the Astros’ offense has struggled a bit, this is an Athletics pitching staff that has allowed more runs than any other team in baseball. Even with Jacob Lopez having a strong stretch of starts, he has only pitched more than 5.1 innings in two outings all season. At some point, the bullpen will need to step in, and the Athletics’ bullpen posts a collective MLB-worst 5.73 ERA with 78 home runs allowed. Lopez may keep his team in it for an extended stretch, but count on the outlook falling apart in the late innings.
Expect the Astros to understand the weight of the playoff race they are firmly in and recognize the importance of beating this inferior opponent. The Athletics leave the door open for the opposing team to take control on just about an every-night basis, so count on the Astros to capitalize on this by putting up runs at a rate they cannot match. Back Hunter Brown to put the team in a position to win and for Houston to cruise to a comfortable victory as the club showcases its superior on-field talent.
Best bet: Houston Astros -1.5 (-110)
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