Out in the NL East, there’s an exciting weekend series on deck for the next few nights. The Miami Marlins are fighting to get back into the Wild Card picture after dropping three consecutive games, but this set against a struggling Washington Nationals team may be just what the doctor ordered. First pitch is set for tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Marlins vs. Nationals game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Marlins prediction, preview
So, the Marlins are four games out of the NL Wild Card at 64-64; not the worst place to be, right? They have a run differential of +14 on the year, but the sailing has been choppier lately at 5-5 over their last 10 games and just 12-19 since the All-Star break. They get an opponent who’s been even less impressive in recent weeks, taking on a Nationals group that’s 61-68 with a +17 run differential. The wheels have seemingly fallen off in Washington, also going 13-19 since the break even though the offense remains formidable at a macro level.
RHP Brad Lord (5-2) draws the start for Washington. He’s started just three games with limited work in those, but has 30 total appearances to his name this year with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He’s struck out 57 hitters in 62.1IP, bringing a 21.2% K% and a 9.3% BB%. His ground-ball rate sits in the 97th percentile.
RHP Ryan Gusto (0-3) is set to start for Miami tonight. He’s worked in varying roles this season but has 16 games with 11 starts, logging a 4.70 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. He’s struck out 49 betters across his 53.2 IP, a K% of just 20.7%, though that’s countered by a low 5.9% BB%. His hard-hit rate falls in just the ninth percentile, though.
The Nationals have displayed one of the best offenses in baseball throughout the season and continue to do so, even though the wins aren’t coming. Their .759 OPS is the second best of any club and they’ve scored 20 more runs than any other team as well. Power is a strong suit with an MLB-leading 182 homers and .185 ISO. Even since the break, the play at the plate remains stable with a .761 OPS. On the year, the slash line against right-handed pitching reads .244/.319/.430 with a .749 OPS, too.
On the year, the Marlins are eighth in OPS (.728) but 19th in total runs scored. They’re more of an on-base team at eighth in wOBA (.321) and just 20th in ISO (.153), ranking 24th in homers (131). Since the All-Star break, they have an OPS of just .688, though, and they’re 25th in total runs scored. Over the full season, Miami also slashes .253/.328/.408 against right-handed pitching with a .736 OPS.
Nationals vs. Marlins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Marlins as a -147 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Nationals enter as +137 underdogs on the road. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
Lord is likely to work as an opener, and Gusto typically doesn’t go deep into games. And while the Washington bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball on the year, the unit is actually looking better since the break with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP – essentially flipping spots with Miami’s which is down to a 4.96 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over the same sample. That’s some important context heading into tonight’s game that actually has me looking at the road dogs here. As long as the Nats’ bats can show up as usual, they’re an intriguing pick on the Moneyline. Granted, working without James Wood and potentially CJ Abrams in the lineup is easier said than done, but we’ve seen plenty of other players contribute this year when called upon.
