Chicago opens this series at 74-54, five games behind Milwaukee and six clear atop the NL wild-card standings. Seattle returns home at 60-68, three games outside the final AL wild card. Five teams remain between the Mariners and that position. Seattle went 4-5 during a nine-game trip through New York, Houston, and Milwaukee. The Mariners were outscored 65-38, including a 22-0 loss Tuesday. Chicago took two of three from the White Sox before resting Thursday. Seattle played Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee before traveling west. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mariners vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Joshua Baez turned Matthew Boyd’s last start into baseball history, taking him deep three times during his major-league debut. Boyd allowed seven earned runs and four homers, ending an 8-0 stretch featuring a 2.96 ERA. His broader indicators had warned about some turbulence. Boyd owns a .341 xwOBA against, 10.3% barrels, and 13 homers across 85 innings. His road work offers a convincing counter: a 2.57 ERA and only two homers across 42 innings. Boyd grew up in Mercer Island and owns a 2.29 ERA across seven appearances at T-Mobile Park. Hancock brings a 3.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 119 strikeouts through 128 innings. He held Houston to two runs across seven innings Saturday, striking out eight.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the matchup’s best player, and his recent batting average undersells his current damage. He is hitting .200 across 10 games, yet five of his nine hits left the yard. Crow-Armstrong owns 31 homers, a .279/.378/.550 line, and consecutive 30-30 seasons. His 90.2 mph exit velocity, 49% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrels, and .359 xwOBA support the transformation. Alex Bregman has added four homers and 12 RBIs during a 14-for-39 stretch. That gives Chicago two hitters arriving with unusually loud pull-side contact against Hancock’s fastball-heavy approach.
Seattle’s best argument begins with Hancock’s work at home. He has recorded a 3.13 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at T-Mobile Park, where long fly balls often become harmless outs. Chicago also managed two hits during Wednesday’s 3-0 loss. Hancock’s August traffic makes that case shakier. Opponents have hit .306 while producing a 1.53 WHIP across his three starts this month. His .288 wOBA allowed also sits beneath a .308 xwOBA. Chicago ranks third in MLB with a .418 slugging percentage and owns a .337 OBP. Seattle has batted .216/.300/.340 against lefties, leaving Boyd a much friendlier landing spot than his last start provided.
Cubs vs. Mariners pick, best bet
The bullpen and travel situations push this further toward Chicago. Seattle needed 5 2/3 relief innings Thursday after George Kirby recorded only 10 outs. Mariners relievers have combined for a 4.22 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, with Matt Brash unavailable. Chicago’s rested bullpen owns a 3.85 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, although its 72 homers allowed remain a concern. The retractable roof removes most weather uncertainty, while T-Mobile can soften Boyd’s fly-ball mistakes. J.P. Crawford and Matt Shaw remain unavailable, thinning both infields. Seattle’s tired pitching staff carries the more important absence and usage burden.
Seattle -105 gives Hancock considerable credit for his home work and Boyd’s four-homer disaster. Chicago -102 gives too little weight to rest, lineup depth, and Seattle’s poor production against lefties. The under carries appeal at T-Mobile, but Boyd’s August power leakage leaves eight runs uncomfortable. Chicago -1.5 also asks Boyd to protect margin against Arozarena, Josh Naylor, and Dominic Canzone. The moneyline only requires Chicago’s deeper offense to win one more decisive inning.
Best bet: Cubs ML (+100), playable to -115.
Projected score: Cubs 5, Mariners 3.
Best bet: Cubs (+100) vs. Mariners
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