We’ve got an expansion battle to settle on Friday night. The Portland Fire are holding on to a slim hope that they can steal a playoff spot in their debut season, while the Toronto Tempo are looking to the future. Can Portland pull off the road win to put more pressure on the teams above them? Or will Toronto deal a massive blow to their expansion comrades?
The Fire enter as 2.5-point road favorites with -148 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Tempo are +124 underdogs, with the game total set at 182.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Fire-Tempo matchup.
Fire vs. Tempo Preview
This will be the third and final regular-season meeting between these two teams. So far, the Fire have been loving this matchup. They won the debut matchup between these two expansion teams 99-80 behind a well-balanced offensive attack. Two weeks ago, they pulled off another offense-led win, 97-83 at home. That time, it was the Carla Leite show; the young point guard racked up 27 points and 11 assists in a dominant performance.
These teams’ direction contrasts sharply with the start of the season. Toronto started scrappy, going .500 over their first 18 games and looking like a legitimate playoff threat. To say the wheels have come off since then would be an understatement. The Tempo have lost 16 of their last 17 games, dropping to 10-25 on the season. Injuries have played a significant role, but the reality is this team wasn’t built well out of the gate, and regression was bound to hit them. They just didn’t expect to be hit so hard.
Portland also had a strong start, going 8-9 over their first 17 games to stay in the mix. Then the Fire dropped 10 of 13 games, and it looked like the season was over. But they’ve rallied in a major way, winning four of their last five games to stay in the postseason mix. Heading into this game, the Fire are five games back of the eighth seed with nine games left to play, including one game against the Wings. It’s not crazy to think they can keep this rally going and steal a postseason spot.
The injury report carries significant weight in this matchup. Portland will be without their usual trio of Sarah Ashlee Barker, Luisa Geiselsöder, and Sania Feagin, who are all out for the season. Nyara Sabally remains out for the Tempo, but they’ll also be without star guard Marina Mabrey, who is dealing with a recent adductor injury. Maria Conde is out as well, further thinning their forward group.
For the Fire, the game plan is simple: pressure, pressure, and more pressure on offense. Leite stirs the drink, but they continue to get strong offensive contributions from Bridget Carleton and Megan DiLeo. Even without Barker, they’ve shown their system is enough to conquer the Tempo’s flailing defense. Though Portland’s defense hasn’t been a strong suit either, Mabrey’s absence makes their job much easier defensively. As long as Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice don’t burn them, they have little to fear.
Toronto’s game plan is much harder to execute. Mabrey’s absence puts undue pressure on an offense already struggling for consistency, and Sykes has yet to find her form after struggling with injuries this season. Their best hope is to lock in defensively to contain Portland; Julie Allemand and Aneesah Morrow will have to set the tone on that end of the floor.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who will pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Fire vs. Tempo Pick, Best Bet
Frankly, it’s hard to understand why this game is so close to even in the odds. Portland is playing coherent basketball right now, while Toronto is unrecognizable compared to the team we saw early in the season. Unless the bottom completely falls out of this Fire offense, this should be a handy road victory against the worst team in the WNBA over the past six weeks.
