Friday night’s player-prop board moves through five distinct forms of pitcher vulnerability. Jared Jones pairs premium velocity with a 4.78 ERA and 1.55 HR/9. Freddy Peralta has allowed a 5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and diminished swing-and-miss production. Emerson Hancock’s 3.30 ERA conceals a 4.06 xERA and 10 homers surrendered to lefties. Brad Lord owns a pronounced platoon split, allowing lefties a .425 slugging percentage. Simeon Woods Richardson enters Yankee Stadium with a 6.23 ERA and matching totals of 33 strikeouts and walks. T-Mobile Park suppresses power, while Yankee Stadium offers the board’s most inviting pull-side dimensions.
Those distinctions suit the 2+ total-bases market, which permits several clean routes to the window. One homer settles the wager immediately, while one double or two singles provide quieter paths. Friday’s selections combine recent extra-base production with expected slugging, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrels, and pitch-specific performance.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases | -105 | Ohtani has four homers, nine RBIs, and nine runs across his last 10 games; his .295 xBA, .580 xSLG, .409 xwOBA, 93.5-mph exit velocity, 52.5% hard-hit rate, and 16.7% barrel rate meet Jared Jones’ 4.78 ERA, .387 xSLG allowed, and 1.55 HR/9. |
| Pete Alonso 2+ total bases | +120 | Alonso has 18 hits, four homers, seven RBIs, and seven runs across his last 10 games; his .283 xBA, .544 xSLG, .392 xwOBA, 94.2-mph exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate, and 14% barrels oppose Freddy Peralta’s 5.27 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 1.41 HR/9, and .413 wOBA against righties. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ total bases | +110 | Crow-Armstrong has five homers, three doubles, eight RBIs, and eight runs across his last 10 games; his .470 xSLG, .359 xwOBA, 49% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrels, and 68.8% airborne-contact rate attack Emerson Hancock’s 4.06 xERA, .416 xSLG allowed, and 10 homers surrendered to lefties. |
| Griffin Conine 2+ total bases | +140 | Conine has 10 hits, four homers, eight RBIs, and seven runs across his last 10 games; his .270 xBA, .537 xSLG, .386 xwOBA, 92.7-mph exit velocity, 54.9% hard-hit rate, and 16.8% barrels face Brad Lord’s 4.23 xERA, .392 xSLG allowed, and .425 slugging percentage against lefties. |
| Ben Rice 2+ total bases | +135 | Rice has two homers, five RBIs, and six runs across his last 10 games; his .262 xBA, .509 xSLG, .372 xwOBA, 92.3-mph exit velocity, 49.1% hard-hit rate, 15% barrels, and .752 xSLG against four-seamers confront Simeon Woods Richardson’s 6.23 ERA, 5.64 FIP, 1.75 WHIP, and 33-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ledger. |
In-depth analysis below.
Prop bet analysis
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
I make Ohtani my strongest 2+ total-bases position tonight. His current form and contact foundation agree unusually well.
Ohtani owns a .291/.388/.554 line, 30 homers and 57 extra-base hits through 122 games. His expected statistics remain stronger: .295 xBA, .580 xSLG and .409 xwOBA. He averages 93.5 mph per batted ball, with a 52.5% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
August has brought a .292/.354/.597 line across 79 plate appearances. Ohtani has collected 21 hits, nine extra-base hits and 43 total bases in 72 at-bats. He went 5-for-14 with three homers during the Colorado series, including Monday’s four-hit, two-homer performance.
Jared Jones presents velocity and strikeout risk, although his recent ledger remains uneven. Jones has a 4.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 72 strikeouts through 64 innings. He allowed one run across five innings against Boston last Saturday. His previous three starts produced 14 earned runs and four homers across 13 innings.
Left-handed hitters own a .430 slugging percentage against Jones. Ohtani has produced a .534 xSLG and 57.6% hard-hit rate against four-seamers this season. Jones still leans heavily upon premium fastball velocity, placing his primary weapon directly inside Ohtani’s damage profile.
The leadoff assignment supplies another material advantage. Ohtani should receive four plate appearances, with a plausible fifth if Pittsburgh’s 4.21 bullpen ERA enters early. Two singles can settle this wager, while one barrel finishes it immediately. His recent production, expected power and lineup position make this the card’s cleanest profile.
Pete Alonso 2+ total bases
Alonso enters tonight with the most persuasive recent hitting form anywhere on this five-player card. His underlying authority removes any dependence upon batting-average fortune.
He has batted .373/.440/.672 during August, collecting 25 hits and six homers across 67 at-bats. That stretch includes eight extra-base hits and 45 total bases. Alonso has multiple hits in seven of his past 12 games. He has also homered three times across his past six.
The broader Statcast profile supplies equal encouragement. Alonso carries a .283 xBA, .544 xSLG and .392 xwOBA. His 94.2 mph average exit velocity leads this group. His 56.3% hard-hit rate also towers over the 37.1% major-league baseline. A 14% barrel rate supports the home-run production without making this exclusively a home-run wager.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a 5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 20 homers through 128 innings. His strikeout rate has fallen to 21.5%, while his 9.2% walk rate continues creating traffic. Right-handed hitters have generated a .413 wOBA against him.
Peralta’s four-seamer remains his foundational pitch. Alonso owns a .296 average, .632 slugging percentage and .717 xSLG against four-seamers this season. His hard-hit rate against them sits at 66.3%.
The teams met last weekend, giving Alonso recent visual familiarity with Peralta’s current arsenal. Peralta survived 4⅔ innings but generated only two strikeouts while issuing three walks. Tampa Bay’s bullpen carries a 4.15 ERA behind him.
Alonso should bat second, protecting his plate-appearance ceiling. August form, elite contact authority and Peralta’s diminished execution place Alonso immediately behind Ohtani tonight.
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ total bases
Crow-Armstrong replaces Luis García Jr. on the final card. The upgrade rests upon recent extra-base production and superior batted-ball breadth.
Crow-Armstrong has produced a .260/.372/.630 line during August. His 19 hits include four doubles, one triple and seven homers. Those hits have generated 46 total bases across 73 at-bats. He also owns five stolen bases this month, although those do not count toward this market.
Monday supplied four hits, two homers and a double. He followed with another homer Tuesday, then Chicago rested Thursday. That respite arrives usefully after 86 August plate appearances.
His season line stands at .279/.378/.550, with consecutive 30-homer, 30-steal campaigns already secured. Statcast credits him with a .470 xSLG, .359 xwOBA and 49% hard-hit rate. His 12.5% barrel rate sits nearly five percentage points above the major-league average.
Crow-Armstrong has also transformed his batted-ball shape. He lifts 68.8% of his contact and pulls 33.8% of those airborne balls. That combination creates doubles and homers without requiring opposite-field luck.
Emerson Hancock owns a sharp 3.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. His 4.06 xERA and .416 xSLG allowed describe a less dominant pitcher. Left-handed hitters have taken Hancock deep 10 times, compared with five homers by right-handed hitters.
The pitch interaction favors Crow-Armstrong. He has slugged .793 against sliders, .583 against sinkers and .525 against four-seamers. Hancock’s recent form demands respect, including seven innings of two-run baseball last Saturday.
T-Mobile Park suppresses power, making this card’s sternest environment. Crow-Armstrong’s speed, line-drive access and multiple-hit routes preserve the proposition. He ranks third for me tonight.
Griffin Conine 2+ total bases
Conine offers the card’s most concentrated combination of platoon advantage, home production and undervalued contact authority. His strikeout rate remains the obvious complication.
Conine has batted .278/.381/.574 during August, with five homers across 54 at-bats. He owns a .955 OPS this month and a 1.024 second-half OPS. Since returning from hamstring surgery, he has hit approximately .280 with 11 homers and a .943 OPS.
His home split deserves particular attention. Conine has batted .346/.414/.744 in Miami, producing nine homers across 78 at-bats. The sample remains modest, although the accompanying contact quality makes it credible.
Conine owns a .270 xBA, .537 xSLG and .386 xwOBA. His average exit velocity has reached 92.7 mph. He has paired a 54.9% hard-hit rate with a 16.8% barrel rate. Both figures roughly double their respective major-league baselines.
Brad Lord has recorded a 4.04 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His 4.23 xERA, .246 xBA and .392 xSLG allowed provide little hidden improvement. Left-handed hitters have batted .255/.352/.425 against him, including five homers. Right-handed hitters sit at .198/.259/.262.
Conine handles Lord’s likely shapes. He has slugged .703 against four-seamers, .583 against sinkers and .600 against cutters. His expected slugging percentage against sinkers reaches .710.
Washington’s bullpen adds late value with a 4.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Miami also carries an implied advantage as a −151 home favorite.
The concerns remain a 30.3% strikeout rate and a projected lower-order assignment. Both reduce his plate-appearance floor. Plus money compensates for those weaknesses. Conine ranks fourth, with the matchup supplying considerable extra-base upside.
Ben Rice 2+ total bases
Rice presents the widest disagreement between recent results and current contact quality. I keep him fifth and require a plus-money price.
His August line has fallen to .131/.254/.295 across 71 plate appearances. Rice has only eight hits in 61 at-bats this month. Three left the ballpark, preserving some damage despite the prolonged drought. His past two games produced three hits, including Wednesday’s homer.
The slump followed Aaron Judge’s injury. Rice carried a 1.056 OPS while Judge remained active, then fell toward .740 afterward. That lineup change reduced protection and exposed Rice to more deliberate sequencing.
His season-long contact profile remains excellent. Rice owns a .262 xBA, .509 xSLG and .372 xwOBA. He averages 92.3 mph per batted ball, with a 49.1% hard-hit rate and 15% barrel rate. His 11.9% walk rate confirms that his strike-zone judgment has survived the downturn.
Simeon Woods Richardson supplies a favorable run-prevention matchup. He owns a 6.23 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and an extraordinary 33-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ledger. His 11.9% strikeout rate ranks near baseball’s bottom.
Woods Richardson’s splitter has allowed a .621 slugging percentage and .568 xSLG. His slider has yielded a .517 slugging percentage and .531 xSLG. Rice has handled four-seamers best, slugging .845 with a .752 xSLG and 65.3% hard-hit rate.
The splitter creates friction. Rice has slugged only .130 against that pitch this season. Woods Richardson throws it nearly one-quarter of the time.
Yankee Stadium restores some environmental appeal, especially for Rice’s pulled airborne contact. A likely top-two lineup position protects volume. The matchup keeps him playable, although August form prevents a stronger ranking.
