BvP. It’s maybe the most polarizing stat in the world of daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting.
While it would seem obvious that a batter’s history with a specific pitcher would be incredibly important and useful information, BvP numbers laugh in the face of sample size. They not only make us draw conclusions from an amount of at-bats that could take place over the course of two or three games, but remember, those games could have happened a half decade ago.
That said, I’d want to know if someone has a couple home runs of a starter that’s pitching tonight. Who wouldn’t?
In this space, I’ll attempt to toe the line between BvP love and hate. Let’s look at some matchups and see if history really is going to mean success on tonight’s slate.
Best BvP Matchups Today
| Batter | Pitcher | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | Trevor Rogers (BAL) | .538/.571/.769 – 1.341 OPS |
| Randal Grichuk (CWS) | Sean Manaea (NYM) | .316/.381/.789 – 1.170 OPS |
| Willy Adames (SF) | Sonny Gray (BOS) | .316/.519/.526 – 1.045 OPS |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | Sonny Gray (BOS) | .286/.348/.619 – .967 OPS |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | Chris Sale (ATL) | .417/.417/.500 – .917 OPS |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | Chris Sale (ATL) | .300/.364/.500 – .864 OPS |
| Vaughn Grissom (LAA) | MacKenzie Gore (TEX) | .417/.417/.417 – .833 OPS |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | Reid Detmers (LAA) | .200/.273/.500 – .773 OPS |
| Ildemaro Vargas (ARI) | Nick Lodolo (CIN) | .200/.273/.500 – .773 OPS |
| Andrew Benintendi (CWS) | Sean Manaea (NYM) | .333/.429/.333 – .762 OPS |
**Minimum 10 at-bats**
BvP Matchup Analysis
Yandy Diaz vs. Trevor Rogers | 1.341 OPS (13 ABs)
Diaz sports a career 149 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. It should come as no shock that he has great numbers off a lefty in his own division — even one who has pitched as well as Rogers has the past couple of years. It’s not just a great BvP history that Diaz has working in his favor on Friday night. The veteran enters tonight’s tilt in Baltimore on an 11-game hitting streak. It’s a span where Diaz is slashing .447/.481/.723 with a .510 wOBA in 52 plate appearances. I don’t think it really matters who is on the mound for the Orioles, Diaz is that locked in at the moment.
Randal Grichuk vs. Sean Manaea | 1.170 OPS (19 ABs)
Grichuk has 222 home runs in his 13-year MLB career. While he might not be a household name, he’s been a quality bat for a long, long time. As he’s aged, he’s become one of the best platoon specialists in the sport, as well. That’s continued in 2026 — at least in his time with the White Sox. In 133 plate appearances against LHPs this season, Grichuk is slashing .312/.353/.632 with a 171 wRC+. He’ll surely be in the lineup on Friday, as Sean Manaea will toe the rubber for the Mets, and it wouldn’t be any different even if Grichuk had terrible BvP numbers versus the big lefty. For instance, Miguel Vargas is 1-for-10 (.100) against Manaea, but all those at-bats came before his All-Star breakout. This season, Vargas flaunts a .419 expected wOBA in his matchups with southpaws. That’s a way better indicator of future success.
Willy Adames vs. Sonny Gray | 1.045 OPS (19 ABs)
Adames and Gray both played in the NL Central in 2024. The pair of veterans has seen a lot of each other. That said, while Adames is an established power bat at the MLB level, it’s a little shocking to see he’s had this much success off Gray in their past meetings. It’s even more disconcerting when you factor in how dominating the 36-year-old RHP has looked so far in 2026, pitching to a 2.65 ERA over 132.2 innings. The wildest part? Adames’ numbers are inflated by the fact he’s drawn eight walks off Gray. The right-hander is not known for his lack of command. In fact, over the last three seasons, Gray’s only walked 2.08 opponents per nine — one of the lowest qualified marks in baseball.
