Friday’s MLB scoreboard includes six divisional matchups, including a pair of AL West matchups. The Los Angeles Angels are headed to Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers, who remain very much in the American League Wild Card race. The divisional opponents are one of the Apple TV games on Friday night, and it should be an entertaining matchup between these familiar foes. Let’s dive into the matchup and make a prediction as to how Friday’s matchup will play out.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Rangers are home favorites at -137 on the Moneyline to win outright and hold +153 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Angels have +125 odds of pulling off the upset and getting the win, and the run total is set at 7.5.
Rangers at Angels prediction, preview
Even though the Rangers are 63-65 and the Angels are only 51-77, the Angels have actually dominated the season series, taking seven of the 10 meetings this year. The Angels took three of four games in Anaheim last week, taking three straight games to wrap up the series, which finished with a 7-0 rout of Jacob deGrom.
The one game that the Rangers won in that series was started by MacKenzie Gore, who will be back on the bump on Friday for the start of this series. Gore has been underwhelming in his first season with the Rangers, overall, but he has been much sharper lately. He has allowed 10 runs in 29 innings with 32 strikeouts in his last five outings, working to a 3.10 ERA and 3.71 FIP during that stretch.
He went 5 1/3 solid innings against the Angels, racking up nine strikeouts and allowing four hits and one run on his way to a no-decision. He has made three starts against the Angels, pitching well in Anaheim but getting knocked around the one time he faced them in Arlington. Contrary to those results, he has generally been much better at home this year, with a 3.27 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his 11 home starts.
He struggled in his last start, but that was on the road in Sacramento. Coming back to Globe Life, he’ll be in a good matchup against the Angels, who continue to struggle at the plate with a high K% and low run totals. Over the last 30 days, the Angels have actually scored the fewest runs in the majors, averaging 3.4 per game, and during that run, they are hitting just .223 with a team wRC+ of just 73 (27% below league average).
Gore will be opposed by Reid Detmers, who is 4-8 on the year with a 3.78 ERA and 3.28 FIP. He has faced the Rangers three times this year, with two strong outings and one letdown in early July in Texas. When he faced them last week, he had six strikeouts in six innings, allowing one run in a no-decision. He was even better in his last start, shutting out the Royals on two hits with 11 strikeouts last Saturday.
Detmers has a 1.83 ERA in his last six games with a 3.12 FIP, allowing only a .160 batting average and racking up 44 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. The Rangers’ offense has been better than the Angels’ over the last month, but only barely. In 27 games, they have scored 89 runs (3.3 runs per game). They have hit only .220 as a team with an 82 wRC+, also well below league average, even though they have a little more power and a little less strikeout potential over that span than the Angels.
The Angels took two of three games from the Astros to start the week, including an 18-run outburst on Thursday night. They have gone 6-3 in their last nine games, while the Rangers are 3-6 in their last nine games, even though they took two of three from the Nationals to start the week.
Texas is tied for the third Wild Card spot with the Twins coming into this matchup, and they’ll look to continue their playoff chase with what needs to be a winnable series at home this weekend. The Angels on the other side, are looking to continue to play spoiler as they let the kids play through the rest of another down season.
Both teams’ offenses have been brutal since the All-Star break, so this could be another low-scoring matchup if both veteran lefties are dealing.
Rangers at Angels pick, best bet
The Rangers have more roster depth and a significantly better record, but the Angels have given them lots of trouble this year, especially in their series earlier this month. With Detmers dealing, the Angels could definitely pull off another upset to start this series and claim the win on Friday night.
While I’d lean towards the Halos to get the win, my favorite bet of the game is actually a combined game prop. With both pitchers throwing plenty of strikeouts lately and both offenses striking out at a high rate, I’m taking the over on the total strikeouts at 18.5.
Detmers had 11 strikeouts in eight innings by himself in his last start, so he’s definitely capable of holding up his half of this total, and the Angels do have some live arms in the bullpen (even though they give up plenty of runs). Since the Angels strike out so much on the other side of the matchup, Gore and the rest of the Rangers should be able to pile up punchouts as well.
Last week when these teams met and these pitchers faced off, the total strikeouts were 22, so getting this prop at 18.5 seems like great value.
Best bet: Total Strikeouts Thrown Over 18.5 (-125)
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